Conflict flare up in Triangle

SOMETHING IS BREWING in the Burmese corner of the Golden Triangle and it's more than just the chemicals boiling in the clandestine heroin and methamphetamine labs.

DON PATHAN
The Nation
Published on August 31, 2009

Bluffing between the military government and one of the cease-fire groups - the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the Chinese Kokang - turned into an armed clash last Thursday. Tens of thousands of residents were sent fleeing to China's Yunnan province, Thai and Chinese officials monitoring the border situation said.

With the help of Burmese government troops, Kokang's stronghold Laogai has now come under a splinter group led by the MNDAA's second in command, Bai Souqian, who broke away with about 200 troops, who accounted for 20 per cent of the outfit's total troop strength.

"It's a classical divide-and-conquer tactic. This is not the first time that the Burmese junta has done this," said a senior Thai Army officer on the border who spoke on condition of anonymity.

In response, MNDAA chairman Peng Jiasheng has dispatched a small outfit to carry out hit-and-run attacks against a Burmese outpost near the Kokang capital of Laogai and pockets manned by Burmese government troops.

Peng has also reportedly secured the support of other cease-fire groups, namely the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), Shan State Army-North and Mong La-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), an outfit headed by his son-in-law Lin Mingxian, also known as U Sai Leun. Incidentally, the NDAA, on June 30, celebrated its 20th anniversary of "peace" with the Burmese.

Both Thai and Chinese sources downplayed the so-called military pact between the Kokang and other ethnic armies. Personal connections and common political and security interests aside, mobilising troops to take on the Burmese soldiers is easier said than done.

"It's all about logistics," said the senior Thai Army officer.

"The Burmese have all the holes plugged to prevent any major movement of troops along the border," added a senior officer from Thailand's' Narcotics Control Board.

In spite of the disturbing nature of the development, Chinese officials along the border area say it would not be in the interest of any stakeholder to let the situation escalate out of hand into an all-out war.

Behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts are being taken to minimise the damage before the situation spirals out of control, the Chinese officer said.

But even if the shooting stops, where all sides go from here is anybody's guess. It is undeniable that the two-decades-old cease-fire agreements that were orchestrated by then security chief Lt General Khin Nyunt in 1989 have been effectively shattered.

But for observers of the Golden Triangle, the real aim of this latest development is not to smash the Kokang's hold on Laogai but to send a brutal message to the 20,000-strong UWSA whose members are made up of some very interesting characters. The Wa rank-in-file include opium warlords and head-hunters turned militia. Chinese Red Guards who first entered the areas three decades ago to preach Marxism later discovered that opium was as good as gold, thus the moniker Golden Triangle.

They, too, joined forces with the Wa to seek fortune and glory. Prior to the 1989 cease-fire, Wa foot soldiers formed the largest block within the Communist Party of Burma. And when the CPB broke up in 1989 along ethnic lines, Khin Nyunt quickly neutralised the CPB remnants with a series of cease-fire agreements.

The end of the CPB didn't mean the end of cross-border personal and political ties, however. It means a proxy army has just changed its uniform.

Ever since Khin Nyunt was ousted in October 2004, the UWSA leadership, as well as other cease-fire groups, have felt that their days were numbered. Almost five years later, their worst fear came true. Their two-decades-old cease-fire has effectively crumbled.

"Picking on the much smaller Kokang reflects the old Thai saying of 'slit the chicken's throat to scare the monkeys'," said a Thai intelligence officer. The monkeys in this case are of course the Wa.

The Burmese junta will continue with its divide-and-conquer tactic, said the Thai Army officer, pointing to the SPDC's relentless drive to split the UWSA. They succeeded in bringing down the Karen National Union in 1994.

The UWSA's geographical foothold in the Golden Triangle resembles that of a dumbbell - with the northern stronghold on the Chinese border, while three regiments are situated near the Thai border. Boa Yuxiang and his brothers control the north while Wei Hsueh-kang and his brothers dominate the south.

The two families can't stand each other but there is an understanding that divided they fall. But that traditional acknowledgement is about to end, said a Chinese official, pointing to the recent mobilising of troops from Wei's Military Region 171 to head to the northern region.

According to the Chinese officer, Wei wants to break away from the UWSA and dispatching troops to Bao's turf is a way of testing the waters. So why can't Wei just announce the breakaway from a distance?

According to Thai and Chinese officials, Wei has been under tremendous pressure from the SPDC to press the UWSA to transform their outfit into a border security guard under the control of the government's army, known as the Tatmadaw. One leverage the SPDC can bring to bear on Wei is that much of his money is invested in Burma while Bao does his banking and money laundering in China.

Since the 1989 cease-fire, Burmese troops were not permitted to enter the territories under the control of these ethnic armies unescorted. In most cases, they had to be disarmed.

Last week's clash was a rude indication that things are about to change. In real terms, this could mean hundreds of thousands of villagers running for their lives to China. Thailand is watching the development closely in case the UWSA's three regiments along its border are drawn into the fight.

For Thailand, it would mean more refugees to look after. For China, it could very well mean the annihilation of an old friendship, namely with the UWSA, whose bonds with the Chinese leadership go all the way back to the days of the communist insurgency.

Loyalty dies hard in the rugged Golden Triangle where warlords play for keeps. Some said friendship between the Chinese leaders and their proxies are forever. Apparently, the Burmese junta is saying it's time to part.