By Don Pathan
It is not the first time that Hassan Taib, the "liaison" for the ongoing dialogue between the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) and the Thai government, has threatened to quit the peace process. But he keeps coming back to relay more or less the same demands and the process has continued.
But the recent release of a statement on YouTube by three hooded men suggests that the peace talks are on their last legs.
In the video clip, the hooded men said there would be no more talks until the Thai side meets earlier-stated demands, such as the withdrawal of non-permanent troops from the region, a release of all prisoners and detainees and the dropping of charges against suspected insurgents.
International observers - from ASEAN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) - must also be permitted to sit in on future negotiations.
Deputy Prime Minister Pracha Promnog, the head of national security, did not dismiss the three hooded men's statement as a hoax. In a face-saving statement, Pracha said the three were trying to stall the talks, not derail them entirely.
Sources in the movement told The Nation that the three were legitimate sources and maintained that the peace process was likely to become history. But that does not mean they will never talk to the Thais again.
Thai security planners are wondering, meanwhile, about future encounters with the BRN should the current process be derailed. One thing the Thais would like to see is a new "liaison" from the BRN-C's inner circle and possibly a person known among the Patani Malays.
Hassan doesn't fit any of these descriptions. He leads a motley crew that includes a couple of BRN cadres, who do not take orders from him, but report back to the BRN's political wing.
Sources in the BRN-C said the movement's political wing would not surface, let alone go to any negotiating table, unless the Thai government grants diplomatic immunity - something they say is standard practice internationally when entering peace negotiations.
They also want a guarantee that Kuala Lumpur, in its capacity as "facilitator", will not deport them to Thailand.
In fact, many exiled Patani Malay leaders said that since the late 1990s - when some of their associates were deported back to Thailand and are now doing life sentences - they have yet to resolve their differences with Kuala Lumpur.
The idea of scrapping the current peace talks gained momentum following a number of humiliating developments, such as the failure to establish a ceasefire during the holy month of Ramadan.
A new peace process should not be a "political circus" like the current one, one BRN source said. This would mean no more YouTube and "microphone diplomacy" as all discussions would be carried out discreetly.
Besides granting immunity to members of the BRN political wing, the Thai Parliament would be asked to endorse the peace process. In other words, the talks would have to be state-sanctioned - not just reliant on one government administration that might be here today, but gone tomorrow.
Indeed, both sides have had difficulties with this microphone diplomacy. On the Thai side, negotiators are quickly running out of spin and justification for keeping the talks going. They had pinned their hopes on an immediate reduction in violence, while ignoring the fact that Hassan and his crew don't have much influence on the BRN leadership - much less cell leaders on the ground.
The government's unexpected announcement on February 28 that it intended to enter into peace negotiations generated incredibly high expectations among the public. And so when violence continued, Team Thailand, led by heads of the National Security Council and Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre - two of the Pheu Thai Party's favourite bureaucrats - were lost for words except to accuse the other side of being peace breakers.
For Hassan and his team, microphone diplomacy means responding to some nagging questions and allegations, such as the attacks on soft targets and the assassination Yacob Raimanee, the Imam of the Pattani Central Mosque, described as "Bangkok's man in the deep South".
The video clip posted on Tuesday evening could very well be the last nail in the coffin for the current peace talks. For a new initiative to start, immunity and a guarantee that no deportations will be carried out - as well as parliamentary endorsement of the peace process - would need to be put on the table first.
It's up to Bangkok to respond.
DON PATHAN Senior Program Officer for Regional Security Cooperation at The Asia Foundation
Sunday 11 August 2013
Monday 5 August 2013
Businesses keep faith in South after latest attacks
By Don Pathan
The Nation
TWELVE HOURS after the warehouse of the rubber factory was set on fire, the smoke was still swirling out of the wreckage.
One fire truck remained to hose down the debris of the rubble from this gigantic storage structure that looked more like a collapsed indoor football stadium.
But Mother Nature wasn’t finished with the Teck Bee Hang rubber factory yet. A strong gust of wind kicked up heavy clouds of smoke. Minutes later, the rubble was spitting out huge balls of flame into the sky like an angry fire-breathing dragon.
The heat spread to the section where propane gas canisters were stored. One by one, the canisters exploded, their blasts shaking this enormous compound.
An Army helicopter swirled high above. The explosions were getting louder and louder, the smoke was filling the sky, billowing over the factory compound.
The 200 or so migrant workers from Myanmar residing in the compound weren’t taking any chances. They grabbed whatever belongings they could and headed for the gate. When asked where they’d spend the night, "I don’t know," one replied.
Teck Bee Hang, along with two other rubber factories, and nine major and medium-sized business outlets in Pattani, Yala and Songkhla, came under arson attacks on Friday morning, between 3 and 4am. Damage was in the billions of baht.
The Friday attacks on business establishments were not the first time separatist insurgents have carried out coordinated raids, causing severe damage to local enterprises. But faith in the economic outlook of the region is still sound as land and property prices climb steadily. Part of the misperception of outsiders, said local residents, is that many believe the region is besieged. But both life and economic activities go on.
Besides economic growth, race relations between ethnic Malay Muslims and Thai/Chinese Buddhists remain sound. The fabric of society holding this ethnically diverse region together is still strong in spite of the fierce violence, which is pretty much confined to security officers and separatist militants. If anything, say the exiled separatist leaders, Friday’s attacks were a slap in the face to the ongoing peace talks they said were hastily put together by Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur.
The fact that militants are disregarding the presence of a platoon from a cavalry unit less than 1 km away illustrates their indifference to the government’s military presence - as well as the claim the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement during the Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan, which ends in less than a week. Hardly a day goes by without insurgent violence in this restive region.
As for the activities of the civil society, a network of youth leaders teamed up with ex-detainees last week at the Malaysian Consulate in Songkhla to demand that Kuala Lumpur, in its capacity as official "facilitator" for the peace talks, raise the issue of targeted killings of former detainees who have either been acquitted or are fighting charges in the law courts.
Some observers suspect the Friday attacks on the rubber plants were in reaction to the Supreme Court decision to drop charges against officials involved in the Tak Bai massacre.
But unlike other sub-national insurgencies elsewhere, this one in Thailand’s deep South has yet to evolve into a conflict where either side is willing to confirm outright or deny its activities, be they alleged targeted killings by pro-government death squads or alleged attacks against military and non-military targets by separatists.
- See more at: http://signin.nationmultimedia.com/national/Businesses-keep-faith-in-South-after-latest-attack-30211887.html#sthash.i5agQhbG.dpuf
The Nation
TWELVE HOURS after the warehouse of the rubber factory was set on fire, the smoke was still swirling out of the wreckage.
One fire truck remained to hose down the debris of the rubble from this gigantic storage structure that looked more like a collapsed indoor football stadium.
But Mother Nature wasn’t finished with the Teck Bee Hang rubber factory yet. A strong gust of wind kicked up heavy clouds of smoke. Minutes later, the rubble was spitting out huge balls of flame into the sky like an angry fire-breathing dragon.
The heat spread to the section where propane gas canisters were stored. One by one, the canisters exploded, their blasts shaking this enormous compound.
An Army helicopter swirled high above. The explosions were getting louder and louder, the smoke was filling the sky, billowing over the factory compound.
The 200 or so migrant workers from Myanmar residing in the compound weren’t taking any chances. They grabbed whatever belongings they could and headed for the gate. When asked where they’d spend the night, "I don’t know," one replied.
Teck Bee Hang, along with two other rubber factories, and nine major and medium-sized business outlets in Pattani, Yala and Songkhla, came under arson attacks on Friday morning, between 3 and 4am. Damage was in the billions of baht.
The Friday attacks on business establishments were not the first time separatist insurgents have carried out coordinated raids, causing severe damage to local enterprises. But faith in the economic outlook of the region is still sound as land and property prices climb steadily. Part of the misperception of outsiders, said local residents, is that many believe the region is besieged. But both life and economic activities go on.
Besides economic growth, race relations between ethnic Malay Muslims and Thai/Chinese Buddhists remain sound. The fabric of society holding this ethnically diverse region together is still strong in spite of the fierce violence, which is pretty much confined to security officers and separatist militants. If anything, say the exiled separatist leaders, Friday’s attacks were a slap in the face to the ongoing peace talks they said were hastily put together by Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur.
The fact that militants are disregarding the presence of a platoon from a cavalry unit less than 1 km away illustrates their indifference to the government’s military presence - as well as the claim the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement during the Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan, which ends in less than a week. Hardly a day goes by without insurgent violence in this restive region.
As for the activities of the civil society, a network of youth leaders teamed up with ex-detainees last week at the Malaysian Consulate in Songkhla to demand that Kuala Lumpur, in its capacity as official "facilitator" for the peace talks, raise the issue of targeted killings of former detainees who have either been acquitted or are fighting charges in the law courts.
Some observers suspect the Friday attacks on the rubber plants were in reaction to the Supreme Court decision to drop charges against officials involved in the Tak Bai massacre.
But unlike other sub-national insurgencies elsewhere, this one in Thailand’s deep South has yet to evolve into a conflict where either side is willing to confirm outright or deny its activities, be they alleged targeted killings by pro-government death squads or alleged attacks against military and non-military targets by separatists.
- See more at: http://signin.nationmultimedia.com/national/Businesses-keep-faith-in-South-after-latest-attack-30211887.html#sthash.i5agQhbG.dpuf
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