Injection of international norms crucial to far South talks

May 19, 2018

By Don Pathan
SPECIAL TO THE NATION
Krong Pinang, Yala

But Thai military’s fear of scrutiny is blocking the path to peace  

Sergeant Chaiwat (not his real name) wondered out loud, with a hint of sarcasm, why violence in Thailand’s southernmost provinces hasn’t subsided in spite of the fact that the country’s leaders – who he called “the bosses” – have been engaging in talks with the rebels for as long as he could remember.

He had reason to be agitated; his operational area was put on high alert on Tuesday after insurgents carried out simultaneous pre-dawn attacks against one police station and four military outposts. “Ramadan starts tomorrow and the militants probably want to let off some steam before they observe the holy month,” Chaiwat said. “But it doesn’t mean they don’t carry out attacks during Ramadan. They’re just not as frequent and intense.”

Thai military officials examine the scene of an attack by suspected separatist militants in Yala on Tuesday.

Like many security officials on the front line in this historically contested region, where Muslim militants have taken up arms against the Thai state to carve out a separate state for the local Malays, Chaiwat is wondering if the “bosses” are talking to the right people. While peace negotiations are something way above his pay grade, Chaiwat said he feels a strong disconnect between the policy level and the actual security operations.

Chaiwat said he is confused over a number of things, including the so-called Safety Zone pilot project under the directive of Aksara Kherdphol, a retired army general who is also leading a team of negotiators – the so-called Dialogue Panel – at the table with MARA Patani, an umbrella organisation made up of several longstanding Patani Malay separatist movements.

Chaiwat said he is just as puzzled at the war of words between Aksara and the commander of the Fourth Army Area, Lt-General Piyawat Nakwanich, who is in charge of day-to-day security in the far South. The two men don’t see eye-to-eye, said security officials in Bangkok, pointing to a turf war and inter-agency rivalries.

Aksara, who sits in Bangkok, has been working hard on his Safety Zone, a pilot project in which both warring sides must observe a ceasefire in a designated district. The project comes with a “Safe House” where representatives from both sides are to sit and work together on various issues, including monitoring the Safe Zone itself. Piyawat, who lives in the conflict-affected region under heavy guard, was quick to dismiss the Dialogue Panel’s initiative, saying, “I’ve got 14 Safety Zones of my own.”

One Bangkok-based security official commented: “Instead of talking it over, they go the media to discredit one another,” adding that when they finally meet for lunch in Bangkok, the damage has already been done. Further complicating discussions, civic groups in the far South have been calling on the separatist militants and Thai forces to respect “Safe Spaces” – designated public areas such as market and school they say should be demilitarised.

Like many observers of this conflict, Chaiwat is not really sure what the fuss is about. After all, victory is still nowhere in sight. The number of insurgent attacks may have dropped sharply since 2007, but the militants have demonstrated that they still have the capability to hit government targets, Chaiwat said. On Tuesday militants with machine guns and grenade launchers attacked five military and police positions in Krong Pinang and nearby Yaha district.  An unregistered drone had been spotted just days earlier hovering over one of the targets, a Ranger outpost.

Needless to say, the ongoing violence and the “spitting contest” between the two top brasses do nothing to help the argument that Thailand is moving in the right direction. In fact, peace talks have hit a snag because MARA Patani felt insulted by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha for “jumping the gun” by announcing the much-hyped Safety Zone.

MARA Patani was expecting a more formal launch after what they considered a “breakthrough”, in spite of the fact that the Safety Zone is not considered a game-changer in the overall scheme of things. Realising his boss had committed a blunder, Aksara went into damage-control mode and went public about the pending release of three insurgent prisoners as demanded by MARA Patani.

He was suggesting to the umbrella group that all was not lost. The three will be transferred to the so-called “safe house” in Pattani where they will be guarded by Thai soldiers until further notice. For the talks to resume, said a source from one of the MARA Patani groups, the Thai government would have to reiterate its commitment to the peace process in the same way that the Yingluck Shinawatra government had done when her administration launched this peace initiative in February 2013.

One reason why Thai leaders don’t take MARA Patani seriously is their conviction that the umbrella organisation does not have any influence on the combatants, say Thai government officials. BRN reluctance Bangkok is hoping that the group with actual control over the combatants, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), will join MARA Patani at the table. But the only tangible thing Thailand and MARA Patani have received from the BRN is an assurance they will observe the ceasefire in the designated Safety Zone.  The BRN said they would only negotiate directly with Bangkok when they are ready and properly trained. The talks, BRN sources insisted, must be in line with international best practices, which means having members of the international community mediate the negotiations. Over recent months, Bangkok has begun to ease up on its zero-sum mentality.

A green light has been given to members of the international community to work with the BRN and local civil society organisations (CSOs), including those who are critical of the state, to help them with capacity building and familiarise them with concepts such as International Humanitarian Law and other international norms. Bangkok thinks more progressive CSOs and BRN members will be good for conflict resolution. The best-case scenario would be creation of a rift within the BRN movement, between the military hardliners and the more progressive camp. But the Thai military, especially the Fourth Army, is not keen on giving foreign organisations or governments access to affairs in the far South. Thai military officials said they don’t want the headache, but local CSOs said the Army is afraid of having to explain to outsiders their questionable tactics and conduct in this restive region.

They pointed to mounting allegations of human rights abuses and harassment of CSO leaders, including the recent raid on the home two young Patani Malay activists, Artef Sohko and Arfan Wattana, by some 60 armed security officers. The activists were not at home.

“My little brother asked them if they had a search warrant and they told him to shut up and to inform me that there’s no way I’m going to win this case because they have the power to do what they do,” said Arfan.

Officers stopped Arfan’s brother from photographing them; meanwhile a police officer took a selfie at the scene which he posted on Facebook with a complaint about the weather and long working hours. Like the Army, Aksara is not keen on the idea of outsiders working with the BRN directly. In his mind, ongoing talks between his Dialogue Panel and MARA Patani is the only legitimate process and anybody who wants to work on conflict resolution in the far South needs to come and see him.

But non-military personnel said the only way to move forward is to give in to BRN’s demand of internationalising the process. One reason why some in Bangkok policymaking circles favour the idea of permitting foreign countries to work with the BRN is that they believe the government holds the moral high ground in the eyes of the international community, which is supportive of their policy for the far South.

The BRN, on the other hand, said Thailand is only interested in reducing the violence to justify their counter-insurgency programmes but won’t talk about historical grievances and root causes of the regional conflict. The positions of the two sides, it seems, are just as wide apart as ever.

Don Pathan is a security consultant and member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com), a civil society organisation dedicated to critical discussion on the conflict in Thailand’s far South.

Thai PM’s Protocol Breach Jeopardizes Southern Peace Talks

Commentary by Don Pathan
Yala, Thailand
May 14, 2018

Peace talks between Thailand and an umbrella group representing Patani Malay separatist organizations have come to a standstill because the rebel side felt insulted by Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha for “jumping the gun” with his announcement of a much-talked-about Safety Zone pilot project. 



Sources on both sides confirmed that the stalling in talks between the government in Bangkok and MARA Patani, a panel negotiating on behalf of long-standing separatist groups in the Deep South, stemmed from the perceived violation of protocol by Prayuth.



MARA Patani felt humiliated and belittled because they were expecting a more formal launch for what they considered a “breakthrough” – the announcement of a pilot Safety Zone, or geographically limited ceasefire, in Thailand’s southern border region.



A source in one of the organizations that sits on MARA Patani said they would like to see the Thai side reiterate the same kind of commitment that the then-government of Yingluck Shinawatra had announced back in February 2013, when the dialogue process was first launched.

Yingluck’s initiative marked the first time that a Bangkok government stated publicly that it was determined to resolve the southern conflict through political means. Prior to that, peace initiatives were kept out of the public spotlight.  



In spite of the fact that the Safety Zone is nothing close to a game-changer for the resolution of the decades-old conflict in the Muslim-majority Deep South, nevertheless, it appeared to be the only thing that Thailand and MARA Patani had to show for in the talks. This explains why the latter was extra sensitive on protocol.



It also explained why Gen. Aksara Kerdpol, the chief negotiator for the Thai side, had come forward about the pending release of three prisoners, as demanded by MARA Patani as pre-condition for the implementation of the ceasefire.

Realizing that his prime minister had created a blunder, Aksara, by going public with the pending release of the three, was sending a message to the MARA Patani side that all is not lost. 

The three are to be transferred to a holding center, dubbed “the apartment,” located inside the compound of the Islamic Committee of Pattani. It is the so-called “safe house” where they will be guarded by Thai soldiers until further notice.



The BRN factor

Thai security officials and militant sources on the ground, meanwhile, said that nothing would change until the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) negotiated directly with the Thais. BRN is one of the long-standing separatist movements, and it controls virtually all of the militants on the ground.



Bangkok wants BRN to come to the table under the MARA Patani umbrella, but the group insisted that they would only meet the Thais directly and would only come to the table when they feel properly trained. 

Moreover, any talks must be in line with international best practices, which means that members of the international community should be permitted to mediate the negotiations, BRN sources said.



Policy makers in Bangkok reject the idea of broadening the participation in this peace process that is being facilitated by Malaysia and up until the recent past, was not keen with the idea of permitting members of the international community engaging directly with the BRN.

Involving the international community

But other Thai officials said they had let go of their zero-sum game mentality.

A green light has been given, they said, to members of the international community to work with BRN and local civil society organizations (CSOs), including those critical of the state, to help them with capacity building and familiarize them with the various concepts, such as international humanitarian law and other international norms.



Hardliners in the military, especially the Fourth Army Region who oversees the security situation in the far south, are not too keen with the idea of permitting international NGOs or foreign governments becoming too involved with the affairs in the far South, for fear of having to explain to outsiders their questionable tactics and conducts in this restive region. 



Critics point to the mounting allegations of human rights abuses and harassment of CSO leaders and political activists in the region. The recent raid of a home a young Patani Malay activist, Artef Sohko, by some 60 security officers is a case in point.

Authorities confiscated some academic papers from Artef’s home. It was in English and it was about the peace process in the Mindanao region of the southern Philippines.

“They said they will get it translated.

I really hope they learn something from it,” Artef said.

Moreover, Kerdpol, the chief Thai negotiator, is also afraid that the participation of outsiders would undermine his role as the one with the sole mandate to negotiate with the rebels, said Thai officials overseeing the southern conflict.

Such attitudes may be challenged if and when the Thai junta steps down and a new government comes to power.

A significant number of Thai officials (non-military) favored the idea of opening up the process to permit members of the international community to participate in the peace process if it means bringing BRN to the table.



They said the self-proclaimed BRN members who sit on MARA Patani do not have the blessing of the group’s ruling council, namely the Dewan Pimpinan Parti (DPP). And until that happens, the dialogue process with MARA Patani is little more than a “talk shop.” 

BRN, on the other hand, said Thailand continued to take them for granted and only wanted to end the political violence without addressing the historical grievances and root causes of the conflict in the far South. 



They said Prayuth “jumping the gun” with the announcement about the Safety Zone was not the first time Bangkok had humiliated MARA Patani. The fact that Thai Government continues to refer to the umbrella organization as “Party B,” instead of referring to them by their organizational name, is a case in point.  



In the final analysis, the Safety Zone is a big leap of faith but it is doomed to fail because the project rests on shaky ground. 

The group that controls the militants on the ground – BRN – may have promised not to sabotage the project but one has to wonder how long that will last.



Don Pathan is a consultant and security analyst based in Thailand. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and not of BenarNews.