Thaksin goes for greater foreign glory

Don Pathan
The Nation

From the very start of the Thai Rak Thai election campaign to the present, the Thaksin administration has repeatedly made it clear its priority will be to improve ties with neighbouring countries and the region.

Indeed, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's personal touch has made it possible for Thailand and neighbouring countries, namely Laos and Burma, to come to the table and resume their dialogue after a number of security hiccups during the last administration.

In principle there is nothing wrong with this idea of existing peacefully with one's neighbours. But putting this in real terms, on the other hand, is entirely another matter.

Since his fence-mending visit to Rangoon last June, Thaksin and his administration went to great pains to show that the two sides are letting bygones be bygones. Cross-border trade is back on track and the overall mood is on the upswing. There have been talks on joint fisheries projects, as well as crop-substitution programmes in an area controlled by one of the world's largest drug armies.

Thailand is determined to make the best out of what it has achieved in the one year that Thaksin has been in power. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has already announced his second trip to Burma, which will be followed by Thaksin himself, also on his second visit to the country.

The big question for many people is how long will this hiatus last? If it does, will it lead to anything constructive and more permanent?

For one thing, says Chulalongkorn University's Panitan Wattanayagorn, the fundamental problems between the two countries remain unchanged. Any quick-fix approach could very well come at the expense of a higher cost in the long run, he said.

Government officials and soldiers on the frontline say Thaksin has been too quick to appease Burma with little consideration to what Thailand should be getting in return.

A good lesson was the recent Joint Commission (JC) in Phuket between the two countries' foreign ministers. With the exception of fisheries, the meeting concluded with core bilateral issues such as drug trafficking, border security and the repatriation of some 100,000 Burmese refugees - who Rangoon often refers to as family members of rebel fighters - still pending with no solution in sight.

Speaking to The Nation on the side of the two-day Phuket meeting, Win Aung made it clear that Thailand's drug habit is not Burma's problem. And if the Thai government wants the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army to stop their illicit activities, Thailand is going to have to pay for it. And don't even think about the military option.

On the repatriation of 100,000 Burmese refugees, the two sides are still as far apart as ever. Rangoon hasn't even acknowledged that they were displaced after decades of war.

With not much else to show for the talks, the Bt20 million for a crop-substitution project in an area controlled by the Wa drug army, along with Rangoon's decision to build a "holding centre" to house deported Burmese workers, was flaunted as a great success by the two foreign ministers.

As for neighbouring Laos, the defining moment for Thaksin will come when Thailand has to decide whether to deport the 28 armed men who in July 2000 stormed a Lao border checkpoint, taking over a government building as they demanded an end to Communist rule.

The problem for Thaksin is that about half of the 28 are Thai nationals. Deporting them to Laos could put a big dent in his popularity.

Vientiane has made it clear that the deportation of these 28 so-called "freedom fighters" will be a defining moment for Thai-Lao relations. Laos is said to be planning a strong protest if there is a move to grant the 28 men political asylum so they can qualify for resettlement in a third country.

In spite of the pending problems with neighbouring countries, Thaksin has got his eye on bigger and better things. With his upcoming visit to China and India, the Thai premier is looking to play higher level politics at a time when security arrangements between the world's major powers is being worked out in light of the post-September 11 world.

Bangkok-based diplomats say his upcoming visit to China, his third since taking over the government, will rub many people the wrong way. Taking the middle ground has for decades been a characteristic of Thailand's diplomacy. A tilt to one major power or another could produce an outcome that may not be desirable.

But as the recent visit by the Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi has shown, Thaksin is a man who can take a licking and still keep on ticking. The Thai premier was snubbed by his Japanese counterpart when the free trade accord was not included in their discussions.

Thailand hammered on diplomatic front

Don Pathan
The Nation

Thailand's international standing has been declining steadily over the past year with the current administration showing no sign of changing its course.

Bangkok-based diplomats, analysts, and government officials blame the decline on the current administration's failure to incorporate the country's strong points - human rights, democracy, not to mention freedom of expression - into the government's foreign policy as if these things are something Thailand should be ashamed of.

"There is a saying that foreign policy begins at home," noted one Foreign Ministry official.

Another factor contributing to the decline is what many regards as a too-ambitious plan to turn Thailand into a major player in the global community.

In principle, turning Thailand into an international broker might not be such a bad idea. New diplomatic channels could open up and give more meaning to a multidimensional foreign policy, but Thailand could end up biting off more than it can chew because it doesn't seem to take into consideration the existing limitations, they say.

Observers say the current administration is unable to cope with the rapidly changing world that calls for swift and firm political maneuvering. The government's actions, they say, do not seem to be based on sound policies or rooted in any principles.

Indeed, from the Taleban's blowing up of the Bamiyan Buddha statues to the September 11 terrorist attack against the United States - and to the push to make Thailand the centre of gravity between East Asia and the subcontinent under the empty notion of "Asia Dialogue" - the Thaksin administration has displayed a serious lack of understanding as to what constitutes a sound foreign policy.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a foreign-affairs expert at Chulalongkorn University, says Thailand is stumbling into unfamiliar terrain and may be putting itself in a very uncomfortable position in a tug-of-war among powerful giants like the United States, China and India.

Moreover, many others say this so-called Asia Dialogue forum has no chance whatsoever of becoming a serious arena that will command respect.

Consider the European Union, where common political culture and economic practices bring all the members of this ethnically diverse continent together under one economic and political powerhouse - there is nothing in Asia to serve as the basis to unite these countries in such a manner.

For the time being, the idea of creating an "Asian Dialogue" - a rejuvenation of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's dream of an East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC) - is currently being floated around the world by Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai. Incidentally, it seems to have been forgotten that the reason the proposed EAEC failed the first time around was that it unnecessarily pitted the East against West.

Many Asian countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the Philippines, India, or Pakistan, either already have strong working ties with the United States or are on course to redefine their relations in light of the September 11 attacks.

Moreover, says one Bangkok-based diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, "There is no reason why South Asia and East Asia cannot come together themselves. They don't need Thailand to bring them together."

But convincing the world community that there is substance behind this "Asian Dialogue" will be difficult, unless of course, Thailand is satisfied with its becoming another talk shop.

"There isn't much commonality here in the region," said one observer, pointing to the absence of a uniform political culture or economic system in Asia.

There is also the issue of reforming the Foreign Ministry, turning it into a "proactive" body that would push the country into the global economic and political limelight.

"This may be good in principle. But the bureaucratic structure, the human resources, and the technical skills are just not there," Panitan said.

"This quick-fix attitude could inadvertently bring down the morale of the bureaucrats," he added.

There is also talk of engaging Russia and other former Soviet republics more forcefully. But after years of ignoring Moscow, no on seems to know anything about the former Soviet states, Panitan said.

Besides the "Asian Dialogue", there have been other incidents that show the new government lacks understanding of and sensitivity to political developments on a global scale.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shina-watra's inability to grasp politics at the international level was clearly displayed in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Instead of going straight to the US Embassy to show the world that Thailand, too, would not hesitate in condemning this hideous crime that had taken the lives of some 3,000 people, Thaksin sent out memos to all Thai embassies to see how many other leaders visited American embassies in their respective countries.

"There wouldn't be any hesitation as to what the premier should do if we took up a position based on some sort of principle," Thai officials say.

The government's handling of the Bamiyan Buddha statues in Afghanistan also showed it was unable to grasp the political significance of the issue, thus allowing opposition leader Chuan Leekpai to make Thaksin's foreign-policy team look amateurish.

Chuan outmaneuvered Thaksin by contacting UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan directly, thanking him for taking a firm position against the Taleban following its decision to blow up the statues. He also wrote to the then Taleban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, urging him to preserve what was deemed a world heritage site.

Thaksin, on the other hand, extended this gratitude to Unesco, a UN technical body that deals mainly with the preservation of ancient artifacts.

"This case was not just about some ancient statues that needed to be preserved. It was bigger than that, and the Thaksin government failed to see the political significance and political dimensions of this case," one observer said.

Thais Tired of Paying for Burmese

Don Pathan
The Irrawaddy

Some in Thailand are talking about getting tough with the Wa, Rangoon’s "partners in peace", whose drug-dealing ways have become a bane to Burma’s neighbors. 

Just when it seemed that things were smooth sailing for one of the world largest armed drug armies, along comes a maverick politician to rock the boat. In March, a ranking member of the Thai Parliament, Kobsak Chutikul, called on the United States to consider using surgical air strikes against the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA) if they do not stop their narcotics activities by 2005 as they have promised.

"Such surgical air strikes would be in line with the emerging international order following the Sept 11 terrorist attacks [against the US]," said Kobsak, the vice-chairman of the Lower House’s Foreign Affairs Committee and a former top-ranking diplomat. "The international community has the right to take action against those who pose a threat to humanity, wherever they may be," Kobsak added. 

The UWSA is one of the world’s largest suppliers of heroin and methamphetamines. The latter is locally known as "yaa baa" (crazy pills), and Thai military officials estimate that 800 million pills will enter Thailand this year. Burma replaced Afghanistan as the world’s largest source of heroin following the US-led air and ground war against the Taliban. 

Kobsak, the deputy leader of the Chat Thai Party, argued that narcotics and terrorism are two sides of the same coin because one feeds on the other. The elusive nature of terrorists’ and drug traffickers’ illicit operations are identical and they use the same legal loopholes that allow terrorists and drug traffickers to sneak in and out of countries and transfer money globally, he said. 

Kobsak maintained that any government that holds the well being of its citizens in the highest regard should not rule out such a military operation because the Wa’s illicit activities are "a threat to humanity". The problem with Kobsak’s statement is that it comes amid seemingly warming bilateral relations between Thailand and Burma. Dialogue between the two sides has been carried out on a regular basis, while negotiations over joint fisheries are reportedly back on the right track. 

There is also talk of Thailand financing a crop-substitution project in a Wa-controlled area adjacent to Thailand’s Chiang Rai province. Troops and officers on the frontline, however, say that the fundamental problems—drugs, insurgencies, refugees and overlapping territorial claims—still remain and that now is no time for complacency. 

The upswing in bilateral ties should not permit the authorities to let their guard down, as they said it wasn’t long ago that the two countries had engaged in a day-long cross-border shelling that resulted in the death of scores of people on both sides. 

There is also the argument that any military action against the Wa, such as surgical air strikes as suggested by Kobsak, would infringe on the sovereignty of Burma and its military government, which in 1989 cut a ceasefire deal with the Wa drug army in return for the latter’s autonomy. Rangoon has come out with some strong words following Kobsak’s remark, accusing the former diplomat of being a warmonger and overlooking its anti-narcotics efforts. 

Rangoon has also ruled out any military action against the Wa and added that Thailand’s drug habit should not be played out as Burma’s problem. Thai officials said that whether there would be an attack against the Wa or not, the improving diplomatic atmosphere should not be a free ticket for Rangoon to get out of the loop. 

Thai officials, particularly those on the frontline, maintained that the junta cannot continue to hide behind claims of protecting their sovereignty while at the same time saying they have no control over the Wa’s actions. In other words, the generals in Rangoon must be held accountable for the Wa’s illicit activities. Many have been critical of the Thai government for being "too generous" in its dealings with the UWSA, saying Bangkok should rethink its strategy. 

The Wa-Rangoon Connection The issue of drugs and insurgency is likely to remain a sour point between Thailand and Burma for some time to come. What concerns many people is that Thailand is becoming too complacent in dealing with the Burmese junta and too quick to take credit for what they claim to be an improving atmosphere. The heart of the problem, said observers, is much more complicated and the future rests on a number of factors—historical, strategic and economic—relating to Burma’s insurgencies. Rangoon has made it clear that they will not turn the clock back to the way things were when their troops and armed insurgent groups were at war.

After all, obtaining the ceasefire with the insurgent groups was not exactly a walk in the park. The UWSA came into being in 1989 shortly after the breakup of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which fractured along ethnic lines. The Wa, who made up the bulk of CPB’s foot soldiers, came together and organized themselves in Panghsang in northern Shan State bordering China. 

In spite of the historical mistrust between the Wa and the Burmese, Rangoon immediately signed a ceasefire with the group for fear that the weapons that the Wa had obtained from the Chinese would end up in the hands of the other groups—be it the Karen rebels or the Burmese student groups who took to the jungle after the military government came to power by gunning down thousands of pro-democracy protesters. With the ceasefire in 1989 came the green light to mobilize more troops southward, where a rival group, the Mong Tai Army of opium warlord Khun Sa, was based. 

Unable to cope with a two-front war, coupled with internal disputes within his own MTA, Khun Sa surrendered to Rangoon in 1996 in return for a generous amnesty. The opium warlord has a US $2 million price tag on his head following an indictment by a US Federal Court over drug trafficking.

Today, the Mong Yawn valley opposite Thailand’s Mae Ai district is a constant reminder of how the history of drugs and insurgencies in the trouble-plagued military state has unfolded. It is also a testimony that the Wa are nobody’s lap dog. They were told by Rangoon to go back to Panghsang shortly after Khun Sa’s surrender and they refused. In fact, Burmese troops must ask permission to enter Wa-controlled area. 

Today for the Wa, heroin money is financing everything from the construction of schools to dam building and other infrastructure project in eastern Shan State, which Rangoon sometimes refers to as "Wa State". For the time being, all sides have adopted a wait-and-see approach, hoping that the "good feeling" achieved over the past year between Thailand and Burma will produce some sort of lasting solution to the drug problems. 

Few are convinced that any lasting peace and stability will result from these ongoing dialogues and visits. Thailand knows that they are not in the position to make any real demands from the Burmese because as far as the generals in Rangoon are concerned, anything that will jeopardize their hard-won ceasefire is a matter of life and death. 

Don Pathan is the Regional Desk editor for Thailand’s English-language daily, The Nation.