Don Pathan
Special to The Nation
There was nothing new in the statement delivered by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) on Monday, but that doesn’t mean the message was without merit or impact.
The significance of the statement, said sources in the BRN movement, was the timing. Similar demands were raised back in early 2013 shortly after the Yingluck Shinawatra government kicked off a peace process. But the intention then was to derail the initiative, which BRN members felt had been forced on them.
The BRN said it knew the Yingluck administration and the Thai Army would make no concessions at talks launched in Kuala Lumpur on February 28, 2013. Thus the main separatist organisation refused to join the process.
Today, the BRN is suggesting it is ready to talk with Bangkok but adds that it is not under any pressure to do so.
The April 10 statement highlighted the BRN’s terms for talks, which include the participation of foreign governments, and agreement on the terms of reference for negotiations by the two opposing parties – Thailand and the BRN. At present Bangkok prefers negotiating with MARA Patani, an umbrella organisation of separatist movements that has been talking to the Thai government for the past two years.
The statement was meant to remind Thailand that the BRN is the organisation that calls the shots on the ground, not MARA Patani.
Tension between the two separatist organisations is high but not beyond repair, said BRN sources, who added that MARA Patani is welcome to join BRN-led talks with the Thais “but only as an individual movement, not an umbrella organisation”.
MARA Patani a ‘Thai creation’
BRN members said they see MARA Patani as a “Thai creation”, pointing to the so-called “Track 1.5” forum that started in 2011. Overseen by the late Jeeraporn Bunnang from the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, the forum brought together exiled leaders from the separatist community to explore peaceful resolutions to this conflict. This quiet initiative would evolve over time and resurfaced in August 2015, when it adopted the name of MARA Patani.
One problem with this forum was that the self-proclaimed BRN members in MARA Patani did not have the endorsement or a mandate from the movement’s ruling council, also known as the Dewan Pimpinan Parti.
Publicly, Thai officials insist they are on the right track and talking to the right people. But lately, some in the Bangkok policy circle are quietly admitting that the so-called “right people”, MARA Patani, do not have command and control over the insurgent combatants.
“It’s a vicious cycle. Whatever we agree with MARA Patani in talks, BRN militants move quickly to discredit it,” said a Thai government source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But while BRN fighters waste no time discrediting the current peace initiative, the group said it has shut the door to individual MARA Patani members joining it in future talks.
A senior Thai Army officer who has had dealings with Malay separatist leaders since the 1980s said the BRN is reminding Thailand, Malaysia and MARA Patani that it is the one with control over the insurgent militias.
“The BRN wants to show the separatist community that it is fair and open to other possibilities and suggestions from other separatist movements as long as its people are at the head of the table,” said the officer, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
BRN leaders out of their depth?
But if the Thai government does give in to BRN demands for international mediation of talks, BRN leaders, who have strong religious credentials, “will be in over their heads” because of their lack of understanding of international norms and legal principles, the officer added.
“These babors [elders] know Islam’s holy book. But if and when negotiations between them and Thai officials take off, much of the agenda will be very technical, as it will be based on tangible issues and on secular, humanitarian and legal principles,” said the officer.
“I’m not so sure if these ulema [scholarly Muslims] are ready for it. I’m not even sure if Bangkok is prepared to go that route.”
There is also the question of Malaysia’s role as facilitator if foreign governments are permitted to oversee the talks.
Old methods won’t work
Talking to the separatists is nothing new for the Thai Army. Many like to boast of how their “negotiating skills” brought down the communist insurgency and armed Patani Malay separatist movements. Some think they can repeat that success using the same tactics – tangible incentives in exchange for laying down arms.
But such tactics do nothing to address the historical and cultural narrative that provides the legitimacy for the Malays’ armed struggle. BRN sources said Thailand’s claims of success are exaggerated.
They said the armed struggle waged by various separatist movements went under in the late 1980s because their main backers in the Middle East and North Africa were repositioning themselves for a post-Cold War era.
Today, the BRN’s training and financing is self-sufficient and conducted from within the region.
Combatants are no longer camping out on mountaintops or travelling to Libya for training as happened in the 1980s. Instead they are scattered throughout the region, where villagers provide them with logistical support.
Thailand wrongly assumed that the absence of violence during the 1990s meant peace; in reality the period was merely a lull before another storm. As long as the Thai state rides roughshod over the Patani Malay narrative of cultural and historical difference, a new crop of separatist insurgents will always resurface to take up where the previous generation left off.
Don Pathan is a Thailand-based consultant and security analyst. He is also the founding member of Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com), a civil society organisation dedicated to critical discussion on the conflict and insurgency in Thailand’s far South.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/opinion/guest_columnist/30312244
DON PATHAN - Thailand-based security analyst/development consultant (Photo: Anjaman Pass, Afghanistan, with two Northern Alliance fighters, October 2001)
Showing posts with label KPI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KPI. Show all posts
Saturday, 15 April 2017
Thursday, 10 September 2015
Junta going ahead with peace process it helped undermine
Don Pathan
Special to The Nation
Having fought against the talks under the Yingluck govt, its military-backed successor is now forging ahead with a flawed bid to end the southern insurgency
Wan Kadir Che Man, former leader of the now-defunct Bersatu, an umbrella organisation that emerged in the 1980s to unite the longstanding Patani Malay separatist organisations, has voiced criticism of the ongoing peace initiative in the far South.
His attack came just days after MARA Patani, a new forum comprised of six longstanding separatist organisations, had introduced itself to the public following a third round of informal talks with Thai negotiators led by the junta-appointed General Aksara Kherdphol.
Wan Kadir said the Bangkok government should not pin its hopes on MARA Patani as the forum does not represent all the groups involved in the southern unrest, particularly those with command-and-control over the insurgent combatants.
He told a gathering at the King Prajadhipok Institute on Friday that he personally knew at least six of the 15 MARA Patani members and that he was dismissive of their claims.
He also poured cold water on Malaysia's role as talks facilitator, noting that initiatives involving Kuala Lumpur come and go but nothing seems to change.
But the thing about this latest initiative - launched by the Yingluck government and picked up by the current crop of junta leaders - is that the media and the public will be regularly engaged.
Civil society organisations working on peace for the South think that's a good idea and that the process be as transparent as possible.
Others think the public should be kept out until the state is certain beyond any doubt that the people they are dealing with have the ability to influence the combatants and can deliver on whatever goods and promises are made at the table. The official terms of reference for talks must also be agreed upon before negotiations can proceed.
The criticism launched by Wan Kadir on Friday came as no surprise since it was in line with what he has been saying all along. But worth closer scrutiny is the story of how this exiled leader emerged into the Thai public spotlight. It helps shed light on the feeble and sometimes appalling attitude of Thai governments and authorities towards peace and peace initiatives for the deep South.
After living in exile for more than five decades, Wan Kadir was permitted by the Thai Army to return to Thailand on a secret trip in January 2013.
The military was against the peace initiative being put together by Yingluck's team but knew it couldn't publicly criticise the leader of the nation. So that's where Wan Kadir came in.
Wan Kadir had announced back in 2004 his desire to return to Thailand to work from within to resolve a fresh wave of conflict involving a new generation of fighters that had surfaced a couple of years earlier.
At first, then-premier Thaksin Shinawatra was reluctant, fearing his return would upset his security advisors, including General Chavalit Yongchaiyud, who was at the time on a quirky ambition to "destroy" Bersatu, even though the group was already defunct.
One of Wan Kadir's main supporters at the time was then-Fourth Army commander Lt-General Pisarn Wattanawongkiri.
Pisarn's idea was to use Wan Kadir as his personal consultant and establish an understanding with the new generation of combatants that would at least cover rules of engagement.
His interest was understandable, coming in the wake of a disturbing April 28, 2004 incident in which more than 100 militants - apparently inspired by notions of invincibility conferred by local superstitions - charged against 10 police outposts and a station armed with little more than machetes.
And although Thaksin remained implacable, Wan Kadir continued with hush-hush lobbying for permission to return to his birthplace.
Later that year, his main supporter, Lt General Pisarn, was ousted from his post in the aftermath of the Tak Bai massacre. But that wasn't the reason why Wan Kadir gave up on his secret lobbying. According to several sources, separatist leaders - most likely operatives from the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) - told him that he "would not last more than 10 days" if he returned to Thailand.
BRN cadres said his return at that time would undermine the separatist community's effort to attain support from international actors - state and non-state.
But in January 2013, Wan Kadir was finally permitted to return for a secret visit to several cities, including Phuket, Bangkok and Chiang Mai, where he was received by senior state officials.
His first public appearance in Thailand came later that year in November, when in a speech at the Thai Journalists Association he criticised the Yingluck government's peace process. Bangkok-based diplomatic corps were eager to meet with him, but his hosts, the Royal Thai Police, kept them at arm's length.
Wan Kadir was invited back again the following month, when he tore the credibility of the peace talks' stakeholders to shreds during a speech at the Prince of Songkhla University in Pattani.
The Thai Army was gratified - not because it was being criticised for lacking commitment and sincerity towards the peace initiative but over the fact that the initiative was being attacked in public.
Coup brings moment of truth
The Army didn't like the idea that civilians were dominating a public process which they believed was their exclusive right to run behind closed doors.
However, it didn't take long for Yingluck's initiative to fall apart, a victim not of Wan Kadir's criticism but of its shaky foundations laid by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's brother, one year before the official launch on February 28, 2013.
And then came the May 2014 coup and the moment of truth for the Thai Army. Failure to continue with the peace effort initiated by the government it had ousted would be a bad political move. But going along with it would mean climbing down from its previous stance.
In the end, the Army opted to continue the process, but junta chief General Prayut Chan-o-cha added demands of his own. Looking tough and in control was important to him.
The demands were that various separatist organisations must unite under a common platform and that there must be a period of peace - ie, a ceasefire - before a formal process could start.
The common platform came in the form of MARA Patani, launched about two weeks ago. They have presented themselves as men who are willing to negotiate a political settlement, leaving it to Bangkok to find ways of moving the initiative forward.
As for the "ceasefire", nobody has brought it up - at least not in public.
Finally came the re-emergence of Wan Kadir on Friday. By attacking the current initiative, he is also discrediting this latest crop of junta officials and their decision to continue with an initiative they had previously opposed.
In a recent interview in Pattani, Wan Kadir said the government should reconsider the peace initiative and switch to using a local interlocutor as the go-between. He recommended a bottom-up approach that starts with the combatants and works its way up to their leaders, who may or may not be living in exile.
The Army appears to have dug its own grave on this matter. If the Thai military and the Yingluck government had begun with a common understanding of how the peace process should be conducted, perhaps we wouldn't be in this predicament.
But instead, Thai institutions - political and military - prioritised their respective political agendas over the well-being of the nation and national security.
Sadly, everyone was out to protect their own turf, with little consideration of the problems at hand or the consequences of their actions. And from the look of it, the Thai Army is now getting a taste of its own medicine.
Don Pathan is a security analyst and a freelance consultant based in Yala. He is also the founding member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com).
Special to The Nation
Having fought against the talks under the Yingluck govt, its military-backed successor is now forging ahead with a flawed bid to end the southern insurgency
Wan Kadir Che Man, former leader of the now-defunct Bersatu, an umbrella organisation that emerged in the 1980s to unite the longstanding Patani Malay separatist organisations, has voiced criticism of the ongoing peace initiative in the far South.
His attack came just days after MARA Patani, a new forum comprised of six longstanding separatist organisations, had introduced itself to the public following a third round of informal talks with Thai negotiators led by the junta-appointed General Aksara Kherdphol.
Wan Kadir said the Bangkok government should not pin its hopes on MARA Patani as the forum does not represent all the groups involved in the southern unrest, particularly those with command-and-control over the insurgent combatants.
He told a gathering at the King Prajadhipok Institute on Friday that he personally knew at least six of the 15 MARA Patani members and that he was dismissive of their claims.
He also poured cold water on Malaysia's role as talks facilitator, noting that initiatives involving Kuala Lumpur come and go but nothing seems to change.
But the thing about this latest initiative - launched by the Yingluck government and picked up by the current crop of junta leaders - is that the media and the public will be regularly engaged.
Civil society organisations working on peace for the South think that's a good idea and that the process be as transparent as possible.
Others think the public should be kept out until the state is certain beyond any doubt that the people they are dealing with have the ability to influence the combatants and can deliver on whatever goods and promises are made at the table. The official terms of reference for talks must also be agreed upon before negotiations can proceed.
The criticism launched by Wan Kadir on Friday came as no surprise since it was in line with what he has been saying all along. But worth closer scrutiny is the story of how this exiled leader emerged into the Thai public spotlight. It helps shed light on the feeble and sometimes appalling attitude of Thai governments and authorities towards peace and peace initiatives for the deep South.
After living in exile for more than five decades, Wan Kadir was permitted by the Thai Army to return to Thailand on a secret trip in January 2013.
The military was against the peace initiative being put together by Yingluck's team but knew it couldn't publicly criticise the leader of the nation. So that's where Wan Kadir came in.
Wan Kadir had announced back in 2004 his desire to return to Thailand to work from within to resolve a fresh wave of conflict involving a new generation of fighters that had surfaced a couple of years earlier.
At first, then-premier Thaksin Shinawatra was reluctant, fearing his return would upset his security advisors, including General Chavalit Yongchaiyud, who was at the time on a quirky ambition to "destroy" Bersatu, even though the group was already defunct.
One of Wan Kadir's main supporters at the time was then-Fourth Army commander Lt-General Pisarn Wattanawongkiri.
Pisarn's idea was to use Wan Kadir as his personal consultant and establish an understanding with the new generation of combatants that would at least cover rules of engagement.
His interest was understandable, coming in the wake of a disturbing April 28, 2004 incident in which more than 100 militants - apparently inspired by notions of invincibility conferred by local superstitions - charged against 10 police outposts and a station armed with little more than machetes.
And although Thaksin remained implacable, Wan Kadir continued with hush-hush lobbying for permission to return to his birthplace.
Later that year, his main supporter, Lt General Pisarn, was ousted from his post in the aftermath of the Tak Bai massacre. But that wasn't the reason why Wan Kadir gave up on his secret lobbying. According to several sources, separatist leaders - most likely operatives from the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) - told him that he "would not last more than 10 days" if he returned to Thailand.
BRN cadres said his return at that time would undermine the separatist community's effort to attain support from international actors - state and non-state.
But in January 2013, Wan Kadir was finally permitted to return for a secret visit to several cities, including Phuket, Bangkok and Chiang Mai, where he was received by senior state officials.
His first public appearance in Thailand came later that year in November, when in a speech at the Thai Journalists Association he criticised the Yingluck government's peace process. Bangkok-based diplomatic corps were eager to meet with him, but his hosts, the Royal Thai Police, kept them at arm's length.
Wan Kadir was invited back again the following month, when he tore the credibility of the peace talks' stakeholders to shreds during a speech at the Prince of Songkhla University in Pattani.
The Thai Army was gratified - not because it was being criticised for lacking commitment and sincerity towards the peace initiative but over the fact that the initiative was being attacked in public.
Coup brings moment of truth
The Army didn't like the idea that civilians were dominating a public process which they believed was their exclusive right to run behind closed doors.
However, it didn't take long for Yingluck's initiative to fall apart, a victim not of Wan Kadir's criticism but of its shaky foundations laid by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's brother, one year before the official launch on February 28, 2013.
And then came the May 2014 coup and the moment of truth for the Thai Army. Failure to continue with the peace effort initiated by the government it had ousted would be a bad political move. But going along with it would mean climbing down from its previous stance.
In the end, the Army opted to continue the process, but junta chief General Prayut Chan-o-cha added demands of his own. Looking tough and in control was important to him.
The demands were that various separatist organisations must unite under a common platform and that there must be a period of peace - ie, a ceasefire - before a formal process could start.
The common platform came in the form of MARA Patani, launched about two weeks ago. They have presented themselves as men who are willing to negotiate a political settlement, leaving it to Bangkok to find ways of moving the initiative forward.
As for the "ceasefire", nobody has brought it up - at least not in public.
Finally came the re-emergence of Wan Kadir on Friday. By attacking the current initiative, he is also discrediting this latest crop of junta officials and their decision to continue with an initiative they had previously opposed.
In a recent interview in Pattani, Wan Kadir said the government should reconsider the peace initiative and switch to using a local interlocutor as the go-between. He recommended a bottom-up approach that starts with the combatants and works its way up to their leaders, who may or may not be living in exile.
The Army appears to have dug its own grave on this matter. If the Thai military and the Yingluck government had begun with a common understanding of how the peace process should be conducted, perhaps we wouldn't be in this predicament.
But instead, Thai institutions - political and military - prioritised their respective political agendas over the well-being of the nation and national security.
Sadly, everyone was out to protect their own turf, with little consideration of the problems at hand or the consequences of their actions. And from the look of it, the Thai Army is now getting a taste of its own medicine.
Don Pathan is a security analyst and a freelance consultant based in Yala. He is also the founding member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com).
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