What’s next for southern Thai peace talks after abrupt govt change?

The appointment of the first civilian to lead Thailand in negotiations with BRN rebels is up for renewal as a new government comes into being.

Commentary by Don Pathan

The sudden change in the prime minister at the top of Thailand’s government will have little impact on southern peace talks because the ruling party has never made this a priority.

The Pheu Thai Party returned to power in September 2023 through a post-electoral Faustian deal with civil-military political parties, even though it had promised not to work with them. Since taking office last year and before Srettha Thavisin was removed as PM through a court order on Aug. 14, Pheu Thai’s focus has consistently been on the economy, an issue with which it still struggles.  

Justice Minister Thawee Sodsong (red shirt) in front of bombed-out
 police flat in Yala, on June 30, 2024. (Photo: Royal Thai Police) 

Meanwhile, efforts are being made to replace the chief Thai negotiator. Under existing regulations for the peace talks, the mandate of Chatchai Bangchuad, the civilian who serves as the chief Thai negotiator, is expected to end after the cabinet of new Prime Minister Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra is installed. 

Chatchai, who is also deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, has been leading Thailand’s negotiating team for about seven months in talks with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the most powerful of insurgent groups in the far south. 

He has succeeded in getting the BRN to agree to a framework for the peace process, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan towards Peace (JCPP).

Agreeing on the framework for the talks may not be as difficult as negotiating on the nitty-gritty of three substantive issues: A cessation of hostilities and reduction of violence; a public consultation process; and discussions toward realizing a political solution in settling the conflict in the majority-Muslim southern border region that has claimed at least 7,400 lives since 2004. 

The agreement, nevertheless, is a step in the right direction. In late June, the then-Malaysian facilitator for the talks, Gen. Zulkifli Zainal Abidin, issued a press statement to welcome this move. A formal endorsement of the framework by all the parties is expected in September. 

Thailand's Chatchai, Facilitator Zulkifli, and BRN's
Anas Abdulrahman, Feb. 7, 2024 (BernaNews)

However, the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha by the Constitutional Court has disrupted that. In a 5-4 vote, it ordered him removed from office immediately for having committed what the court deemed was a gross ethical violation through appointing a convicted felon, Pichit Chuenban, to his cabinet.   

The removal of Srettha and his ministers means the JCPP will have to wait until the new cabinet reinstates Chatchai or appoints a new chief negotiator.

Because Srettha and his replacement, Ung Ing, are from the same party, one would assume that the government’s transition and the agenda for the peace talks would go uninterrupted.

But nothing comes easy in the far south. Chatchai’s Peace Dialogue Panel has been facing criticism from government advisors and hardliners, many of whom never liked the idea of talking to the rebels in the first place. They see the peace talks as “unnecessarily” giving BRN the legitimacy they don’t deserve. 

Unfortunately for Chatchai and his team, the harshest criticism came from one of the most trusted voices in the Pheu Thai circle.

The recent blasting of the JCPP by Professor Surachart Bamrungsuk, a security expert from Chulalongkorn University jolted not only Chatchai and his team, but members of a parliamentary ad hoc committee tasked with coming up with recommendations on how to improve the peace talks. Surachart is not a Pheu Thai member but has close ties to the party and has the ear of Pheu Thai officials.

According to sources close to the sub-committee, it is drafting a report said to be very progressive. It contains suggestions for the government and lawmakers to open up social, cultural, and political space for the Malays in the far south as a way to win hearts and minds of a people who continue to reject Thailand’s nation-state construct and narrative on the grounds that it undermines their ethno-religious identity.

The draft report also calls on the peace talks to go beyond confidence-building measures (CBM) and take up more substantive issues on the table. The recommendations are expected to be handed over to Parliament before the end of this Fiscal Year, Sept. 30.

Like the Peace Dialogue Panel, members of this ad hoc committee are also concerned that their recommendations will be dead on arrival. 

If Professor Surachart is not willing to give the JCPP the benefit of the doubt, then, in their view, there isn’t much hope for the committee’s recommendations.

Surachart accused the negotiators of overstepping their boundary and said that any talks with the rebels must include a demand for the reduction of violence, something that the BRN is not willing to do. 

Working towards the reduction of violence and respecting rules of engagement are fine in principle but a formal agreement on cessation of hostilities, in BRN’s view, is little more than a form of surrender.

Amid the criticism that placed the negotiators in an uncomfortable position, moves are being taken by individuals, including a retired army general, who thinks he can do a better job.

Nobody is expected to make a big fuss if the new Pheu Thai government appoints another army general as the chief negotiator, even if it means going back on their words about promoting civilian supremacy in peace talks. 

But if the excuse for Chatchai’s removal has anything to do with Surachart’s criticism, it could mean an end to the JCPP as we know it. 

Regardless of who becomes the chief negotiator, Thailand still has to overcome some serious obstacles, such as agreeing on the nature of the conflict itself. 

The actions of successive governments – dispatching negotiators to meet with BRN representatives – are a testimony that they acknowledge the political underpinnings of the conflict. But many hardliners still believe they can end the conflict via military means and come out victorious without making any concessions to the BRN or the Malays in the far south.

Separately, Malaysia has recently appointed a new facilitator, Mohd Rabin Basir, for the talks between the Thai government and BRN. Familiarity with the intricacies of the negotiations will take some time, but the new facilitator appears to be off to a good start.

Thai officials said Rabin was not too keen on protocol and that he was encouraging direct engagement between the BRN representatives and Thai negotiators. Less structured, more direct and personal appeared to be Rabin’s approach to the peace process, one Thai official said.

How this plays out in terms of deeper discussion on the JCPP, on the other hand, remains to be seen.

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.


Endorsement of the JCPP at the end of September 2024

 

Expect parliamentary sub-committee to make bold peace recommendations for Thai Deep South

Don Pathan
BermaNews

As it nears its conclusion, a parliamentary ad-hoc committee tasked with exploring ways to enhance the southern Thailand peace process is soon expected to submit some bold recommendations, including to confront thorny issues at the heart of the insurgency.

After extensive consultations with conflict experts and key stakeholders, including a meeting in Malaysia with negotiators representing the Barisan Nasional Revolusi (BRN) rebels, the committee will submit its recommendations to Parliament for review next month before it will likely be disbanded.

Elders at the Don Rak Mosque distribute money to children to celebrate the Eid-ul-Adha holiday in Nong Chik, a district of Pattani province in southern Thailand, June 17, 2024. [Yostorn Triyos/BenarNews]

The committee, which was set up by Thailand’s new legislature, was also tasked with providing recommendations on improving the public consultation process – a platform for residents of the Muslim-majority and historically contested far South to engage with Thai and BRN negotiators.

Some members of the 35-member ad-hoc committee – particularly those with progressive views – are expected to advocate for moving the peace talks beyond confidence-building measures (CBMs) and taking up topics that go to the root causes of the decades-old conflict.

However, such a call for substantial changes may face resistance as some bureaucrats, including a few on the committee, are inclined to maintain Thailand’s highly centralized structure. They are wary of granting the far South any special status that could set a precedent for other regions.

BRN, a longstanding Patani Malay armed separatist group that controls virtually all of the combatants in the field, commenced direct talks with Thailand’s Peace Dialogue Panel in January 2020. The negotiation process has been challenging, with disagreements between the Thai army and BRN over the preferred approach.

While some progress has been made, there are underlying tensions about the legitimacy of the negotiations and political motives behind violence in the southern border region.

For one, the process from the start didn’t have the full endorsement of the army, which still preferred using military means to quell the insurgency. 

Thai political elites and the army have never liked the idea of talking to the separatists, and see this as unnecessarily legitimizing the BRN. They prefer not to acknowledge the political underpinnings of the violence in the southern border region.

BRN combatants, on the other hand, have wondered if independence is still part of the movement’s goal now that their political leaders have agreed to negotiate under the Thai constitution. 

The movement’s leaders will rely on the public consultations to sort this matter out. If the constituency wants independence, so be it.

Combatants, meanwhile, are not letting up on their campaign of violence. More than ever, attacks have become an essential part of the rebels’ political messaging.

The increase in violent incidents is the highest in the past six years, and the intense nature of some of these high-profile, often coordinated, and simultaneous attacks involve scores of operatives and at times, last up to 30 minutes. Targets include security units patrolling the region and government installations in towns and cities.

This is a far cry from the usual roadside bombing followed by a three-minute gunfight before retreating into the woods.

Besides the increase in violence, the reaction to a leaked copy of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Towards Peace (JCPP) reflects the fragility of the peace process. 

The usual talking heads came out to voice their opinion but it was comments by Surachart Bamnrungsuk, a faculty member of the Department of International Relations at Chulalongkorn University, that rubbed many people the wrong way. He had remarked that the Peace Dialogue Panel was going about it the wrong way, and he asked whether the Thai negotiators were exceeding their mandate with this so-called road map for peace.

The document, leaked by the BRN, contained specific points about reducing violence; it also talked about a timeline for releasing detainees, as well as guidelines for ceasefire monitoring.

The JCPP was not a political statement in itself, but critics of the peace process could not bring themselves to see it any other way. For many Thai policy makers and conservative elites, everything in the Malay-speaking far South, and every dealing with the BRN is in essence political.

The ad hoc committee for the far South is headed by veteran lawmaker

Chaturon Chaisang, who is well respected by the Malay Muslims in Thailand’s far South.

When he served as education minister two decades ago, Chaturon urged the government to support local identity and grant the Malays greater cultural space as a way to bridge the trust gap between the state and the local population. 

His recommendations were quickly shot down by the army.

Today, Chaturon is no longer a cabinet minister and does not have the kind of pull that he used to have with the government or the party. No one is expecting a significant breakthrough because it’s still not clear what kind of concessions the government is willing to give to the Patani Malays.

Moreover, the three-month at a time mandate given to his ad hoc committee wasn’t much of a mandate to begin with, considering that the conflict resurged 20 years ago and that more than 7,500 people have died from insurgency-related violence since then.

Committee members are a mixed bag of people, including people who advocate for serious moves to empower the Malay-speaking region so that the locals can fully embrace their cultural-religious identity and narrative. And then there are those who believe the far South can come to terms with the state if the government improves its deliverables on goods and services.

Police investigate the scene after a motorcycle-bomb attack injured nine people at Tha Phraya Sai Dam in Mueang Narathiwat, a district of Narathiwat province in southern Thailand, May 7, 2024. [Matahari Islmail/BenarNews]

Government officials, in general, continue to cling to the long-standing policy of assimilation – enhancing Thainess among the Melayu without understanding that, for the Muslims in this historically contested region, their Islamic religion and their Malay identity are inseparable.

Moreover, there doesn’t seem to be much interest among the lawmakers, including those who sit on this ad hoc committee. Many appeared to have better things to do than coming to the committee’s meetings.

In the final analysis, no matter how bold their recommendations may be, it is essentially up to Parliament and the government to act on the committee’s recommendations. 

Given the political climate of the day, combined with the lack of interest by the current crop of lawmakers and the mindset of the army and political elites who are not willing to make serious concessions to the Patani Malays beyond minor administrative adjustments, political violence in the far South will go on as usual.

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst who works on conflict and insurgency in the Southeast Asia region. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.


Thai, BRN negotiators are ready to resume peace talks

Commentary by Don Pathan
BernaNews

Chatchai Bangchuad (left), the Thai government’s new chief negotiator for Deep South peace talks, meets with Malaysian facilitator Zulkifli Zainal Abidin. [Courtesy of National Security Council of Thailand]

High-level negotiations between Thai officials and representatives from the Barisan Revolusi Nasional rebel group are scheduled to resume next week in Kuala Lumpur after a year-long pause, as Thailand preoccupied itself with the 2023 general election followed by several months of horse-trading.

Thai negotiators and the BRN, the long-standing separatist movement that controls virtually all combatants in Thailand’s Malay-speaking far south, are expected to continue to look for a common ground on three items – public consultations, reduction of violence and political solutions to bring this conflict to an end.

In the previous round of talks that came to a halt in February 2023, BRN requested that its representatives be permitted to enter the southern Thai border provinces – the historically contested area – to carry out in-person public consultations.

But the plan was shot down by the Thai Army whose leaders were afraid of a public-relations nightmare. An outpouring of support for the BRN delegates from locals would destroy the Thai government’s old narrative that says the Malays of Patani are with the Thai State.

The two sides have yet to agree on the format. 

The Thai government wants everybody – Thai-BRN negotiators and the Malaysian mediator – to sit at every meeting under the public consultation platform while the rebels insist that could happen only after a certain level of comfort is reached on that issue. Until then, the three stakeholders at the table should conduct their consultation individually, in BRN’s view.

Reduction in violence

A cessation of hostilities agreement, or COHA, is a bit tricky, as some BRN members see it as a form of surrender. They insisted COHA must be a gradual process or BRN’s military capability will be depleted.

Besides the three items that have been on the table for some time now, the Thai side is expected to ask the BRN to agree to a ceasefire during the upcoming Ramadan – the Muslim holy month of fasting – expected to run from March 10 to April 9. 

Previously, the two sides observed a ceasefire during the 2022 holy month. The government deemed it a great success and wanted to build on it. 

BRN added 10 days as a gesture of goodwill to the Buddhist residents in the far south, extending the ceasefire to the Visaka Bucha that year.

But just days after the ceasefire ended, combatants launched a series of vicious attacks, reminding all sides that nothing comes easy in this long-standing conflict that has so far claimed more than 7,300 lives since a separatist insurgency reignited in January 2004. 

Chatchai Bangchuad (left), the Thai government’s new chief negotiator for Deep South peace talks, meets with Malaysian facilitator Zulkifli Zainal Abidin in this undated photo. [Courtesy National Security Council of Thailand]

Ahead of Ramadan in 2023, the Thai government was not able to secure a similar agreement, partly because the Thais couldn’t meet BRN’s request to allow an international monitoring team. Besides, the two sides had gone into pause mode because of the general election.

It is not clear if a deal could be reached for this year’s Ramadan less than six weeks away.  

Still, BRN is expected to reiterate the same requirements for a cease fire and call for the release of an unspecified number of prisoners. Should this happen, it would be a test case for the Thai government as any release of prisoners requires the Justice Ministry to take a stance on the matter.

Political solution – the third point on the table – is an open-ended challenge. But Thailand appeared to have taken the lead as both sides have agreed it must be carried out within the country’s constitution under the principle behind the unitary state of Thailand.

The three items are guided by the Joint Comprehensive Plan toward Peace (JCPP), the so-called roadmap. A timeline is expected to be agreed upon by April even as negotiations on the text of this roadmap are a work in progress.

Negotiated texts aside, the burning issue for BRN is whether the movement is willing to settle for something less than complete independence. 

Since BRN members have indicated that they are willing to negotiate the third item under the constitution and in line with the principles underlying the unitary state of Thailand, many observers, including combatants, have interpreted this move as a willingness to compromise for something less than complete independence. This could be a disaster for BRN if the combatants go against the idea.

Thailand’s negotiating team will be led by Chatchai Bangchuad, deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC). The fact that he is a civilian breaks with tradition as past chief negotiators who had served were Army generals. 

Chatchai has included the Southern Border Provinces Administration Center (SBPAC), a multi-agency governmental body that focuses on development in this historically contested region, in the lineup. This suggests that livelihood in the far South and peace talks must go together. 

Previous chief negotiators, including Gen. Udomchai Thamsarorat, had urged civil society organizations (CSO) to serve as interlocutors in the peace process, but not necessarily be given a seat at the negotiating table. The proposal was never given a chance to materialize as Udomchai left to take a position in the Thai Senate. 

Today, any suggestion of repeating Udomchai’s proposal will likely be shot down right away as more than 43 Patani Malay CSO leaders in the far south have been accused by the army and police of promoting separatist ideologies in recent months.

Meanwhile, youth leaders accused authorities of harassment and intimidation, saying they should be able to talk about “rights to self-determination” as a matter of principle behind free speech. BRN, on the other hand, will be hard pressed to take a stance on the alleged judicial harassment.

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst who works on conflict and insurgency in the Southeast Asia region. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.

https://www.benarnews.org/english/commentaries/peace-talks-02012024151310.html?fbclid=IwAR0sziFecwhFQdLkoYgrv-RaIm2GeWq9lcpzdUcuSTnX2dhNLKW8qg_P9fs

Thai peace talks: Expect new PM to appoint civilian as chief negotiator

Commentary by Don Pathan
BenarNews

Peace talks between Thailand and Barisan Revolusi Nasional rebels came to a complete stop in early 2023 when BRN said they would not return to the table until a new government took power following the May general election.

Prime Minister Srettha Tavisin and his cabinet were inducted on Sept. 5 after political wrangling and a post-polls impasse that lasted 3½ months. But nearly two months into office, Srettha’s government still has not announced who he has appointed to serve as the chief negotiator representing Thailand in the Malaysia-brokered talks. 

It’s also unclear whether Srettha has removed Gen. Wanlop Rugsanaoh, the incumbent, from that post. The delay is not so much a tactic but a reflection of how this administration prioritizes its policies.

Srettha has other urgent matters to attend to such as restoring the faith of his Pheu Thai Party’s support base, who felt betrayed by deals it made in forming a ruling coalition with the help of ex-military rivals who had toppled another Pheu Thai prime minister through a 2014 coup.

And so it’s important to give the impression of civilian supremacy. 

The prime minister is poised to appoint the first non-military person in years to lead the negotiating team. The past three chief negotiators for the southern peace process were retired army generals. A non-military person is expected to lead the National Security Council (NSC) as well.

Official sources said the negotiating team would report directly to Srettha, who would incorporate his own key personnel into the outfit. The NSC will not take the lead on that team but will join representatives from other government agencies and ministries in the secretariat.

While the negotiations team will come directly under the prime minister, the Prachachat Party, a local party made up of mostly ageing Malay Muslims who were members of the now-defunct Wadah Faction, will take the lead in overseeing policy for the far south. They will receive a wide mandate, from development to national reconciliation.

Anas Abdulrahman (center), the head of the panel representing Barisan Revolusi Nasional rebels in peace talks with Thailand, and fellow BRN delegates take part in a post-meetings press conference at a hotel in Petaling Jaya, near Kuala Lumpur, Aug. 3, 2022. [S. Mahfuz/BenarNews]

However, identifying the terms for peaceful coexistence between the ethnic Malays in the troubled border region and the rest of the predominantly Buddhist country will not be easy. 

Wadah politicians were given the same mandate by the then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who, almost immediately after coming to power in 2001, dissolved the multiagency Southern Border Provinces Administration Center so that his people could have a freer hand to deal with the region. 

But the government of Thaksin, Pheu Thai’s patriarch, was caught off guard with the emergence of the new generation of Patani Malay separatist fighters after nearly a decade of relatively calm.

At first, Thaksin labeled them “sparrow bandits,” insisting that Patani Malay separatist ideology was a thing of the past. But his government could no longer deny the political underpinnings of their operations when, on Jan. 4, 2004, scores of BRN insurgents raided an army battalion and made off with hundreds of military weapons from an arms depot on base.

Since then more than 7,300 people have been killed from insurgency-related violence.

Peace initiatives have come and gone but none generated enough traction to push the talks beyond confidence-building measures, or CBM – not even after the BRN, the group that controls virtually all of the combatants in the field, came to the table, in early 2020.

As long as anyone could remember, Prachachat members like to blame the military for just about everything, from abuse of power and heavy-handedness in counter-insurgency operations, to obstructing progress and development in this historically contested region.

But it was their refusal to stand up for their own people against the then government of Thaksin and the army during two bloody incidents – the Tak Bai massacre and the Krue Se Mosque standoff in April and October 2004, respectively – that undermined their popularity with voters.  

According to Daungyewa Utarasint, an assistant professor at the New York University campus in Abu Dhabi, the so-called Wadah politicians were shunned by their constituency for nearly 15 years. They were able to make a comeback in 2018 with the help of Police Col. Tawee Sodsong, a close political ally of Thaksin. Together, these so-called Wadah politicians formed the Prachachart Party.

Artef Sohko, president of The Patani, a political action group advocating rights to self-determination for the people in the far south, said memories of the Tak Bai and the Krue Se incidents are still vivid in the minds of the locals who have yet to come to terms with these atrocities.

“Blaming the Army for all the region’s problems is Wadah’s way of excluding themselves from any responsibilities. They were more concerned about staying in power than bringing justice to their people,” Artef said.

“Justice to them is mainly about economic development. They forgot it’s also about human dignity,” Artef added.

Negotiation can be a thankless job because the Thai team was hampered by national politics that would not permit them to make any meaningful concessions to the rebels or to the Patani Malays, a people who embrace an entirely different set of historical and cultural narratives from that of the Thai State.

For the young men taking up arms against the state, said local writer Asmadee Bueheng, their political objective is non-negotiable.

“People have put their lives on the line for it and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Thailand has to learn how to deal with this sacred value that cannot be compromised,” Asmadee said.

Today, with a civilian government in place, it is tempting to believe that changes is inevitable. It is hoped that meaningful topics would reach the negotiating table and generate greater social-political space for the Malays in the far south that could lead to reconciliation.

But this blind optimism rests on the assumption that the civilian leaders understand the nature of the conflict better than the military who had dominated the country’s national politics for much of the past two decades.

Civilian leaders may have a better rapport with civil society organizations (CSO). But if the past two decades tell us anything is that neither the political leaders nor the country’s top brass has the political will to push for real changes.

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst who works on conflict and insurgency in the Southeast Asia region. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.

https://www.benarnews.org/english/commentaries/thailand-srettha-thavisin-southern-peace-talks-don-pathan-10272023104732.html 

Southern rebels welcome Thailand’s new govt with a bang

A commentary by Don Pathan
BenarNews
Pattani, Thailand

Members of The Patani political action group in Yala urging the public to exercise their right to vote at the upcoming General Election 2023 (File Photo: Don Pathan)

Late last month, separatist rebels jolted Thailand’s security apparatus by launching simultaneous attacks in a pocket of the southern border region that lasted considerably longer than their usual hit-and-run raids.  

The coordinated attacks came only a few days after Parliament elected Srettha Thavisin as the new prime minister, and their intensity rattled the nerves of the guardians of Thai security. And with a new government finally in place after a post-polls impasse that lasted months, peace talks between the Thai government and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the main insurgent group in the far south, are expected to resume. 

In the first of the three recent attacks in Yarang, a district of Pattani province, a group of rebels used M60 machine guns – military-grade weapons that require two people to operate them – as well as grenades.

Four security officials – two police officers and two members of a provincial security detail – were killed and four other policemen were injured during the gunfight that ensued on Aug. 28. The incident lasted more than 10 minutes – an eternity for attacks by suspected BRN rebels. 

In the second and simultaneous attack, a police unit came under a hail of gunfire as it passed by a local Buddhist temple. Meanwhile, only a kilometer away, a powerful explosive took down a utility pole, seemingly as a smokescreen so that the rebels could make their getaway a little easier, an army officer said. 

Explosions from roadside bombs often preceed rebel raids, but the gunfights that follow usually don’t last longer than three minutes, said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.  

“I can’t recall the last time an M60 was used by the separatists,” the officer said. “We know that they had taken some from the Pileng operation,” he added, referring to an arms heist by BRN rebels in January 2004, when they stole more than 350 weapons from an army battalion’s weapons’ depot in neighboring Narathiwat province.

What was particularly disturbing about the attack in Pattani on Aug. 28 was that several reels of video footage were recorded at the scene and from different vantage points, the officer said. 

Some of the footage was filmed from the position from where the rebels were shooting; other footage was taken from “safe” positions as if the videographer knew about the attack ahead of time, the officer noted. 

Postings of the various footage on social media, however, were quickly taken down as if to blur the origin of the videos and to throw off investigators. 

‘Srettha doesn’t seem to care’

Some activists in the region such as Artef Sohko, the president of The Patani, a political action group that advocates the right to self-determination for the people of this historically contested region, see the coordinated attacks as BRN’s way of “welcoming” the new government. 

Artef Sohko

In other words, it was a sign of things to come for the newly inducted government of Srettha, who, in his policy speech to Parliament this week, appealed to the country’s people – regardless of their ethnicities, religions, and ideologies – to live in harmony. 

He did not single out or mention the far south, where more than 7,300 people have been killed from insurgency-related violence in the mainly Malay Muslim border region since early 2004. 

“Srettha doesn’t seem to care about the conflict in the Patani region and he is surrounded by people who do not really want to see the peace process become a national agenda as it could lead to internationalization of the conflict,” said Asmadee Bueheng, a Pattani-based writer and the author of “Rawang Tang Satha” (“On the Path of Faith”), published in March 2023. 

Asmadee Bueheng

“Internationalization means outside interference and Thailand never wanted that,” Asmadee said.

Conflict and insurgency in the far south, including the Malaysia-brokered peace talks between the government and the BRN, was largely ignored by Thailand’s political parties. 

That includes the local Malay party, Prachachat, which performed well in the May 14 general election. Campaigning on a platform that emphasized the local Muslim identity, the party won nine of the 14 parliamentary seats representing the region.

When it was safe to do so, Prachachat played the Islamic card and pandered to the region’s religious minority, such as by condemning Thailand’s legalizing marijuana on moral grounds. But the party stayed away from the peace process and the issue of conflict resolution.

That would have been a hard sell to the Thai public, who can be unkind to people who challenge the Thai state-constructed narrative and identity. Many see the Malay Muslim minority’s refusal to embrace the Thai identity as a direct challenge to the country’s nationhood.

According to an informed source, Prachachat Party leader Thawee Sodsong, who is the new minister of justice, has been approached to become the chairman of the steering committee overseeing the peace process, although he has kept tight-lipped about that prospect. In the past, the post was occupied by Thailand’s prime minister. 

Thawee has a long and personal history in the far south, where he served as secretary-general of the multi-agency Southern Border Provinces Administration Center (SBPAC) during the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in May 2014. He was also the architect for an earlier iteration of the peace process between Thailand and the BRN, launched in Kuala Lumpur a decade ago. 

Should Thawee take the position, it will not be smooth sailing. 

Pol Colonel Thawee Sodsong

Being close to the Shinawatra political family has its price. It places him on the other side of the political divide from the conservative military. Prachachat may be part of Srettha’s new ruling coalition that includes pro-military parties, but the political divide is still very much there. 

Moreover, the Thai army never liked the idea of negotiating with the rebels because they believed that military means could bring the long-running southern insurgency to an end. 

As did the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the army preferred to label the separatist movements as criminal organizations. In their mind, acknowledging the political underpinnings of the violence will only help legitimize the separatist movements. 

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst who works on conflict and insurgency in the Southeast Asia region. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.

Hint of ‘self-determination’ in Thai south rankles

Calls for a referendum gauging support for independence in the Muslim-majority region spark panic

By ASMADEE BUEHENG
Asia Times

A map of Thailand's southernmost border provinces. Image: Wikimedia

PATTANI, Thailand – A recent seminar on rights to self-determination by a newly formed student movement in Thailand’s Malay-speaking south got people running for cover after the Thai Army threatened legal action against a mock vote asking the participants whether they would support a referendum that could pave the way toward a separate state for the Muslim-majority region.

The plebiscite would ask: “Do you agree with the ‘right to self-determination’ as the underlying principle behind a referendum that would allow the voice of the Patani people to be heard so they can vote for independence through legal means?“

The army was offended and is thinking about taking legal action. Most Thai officials equate “right to self-determination” in the Muslim-majority far south to separatism.

More than 7,300 people have died from insurgency-related violence since January 2004 and the end is still nowhere in sight in spite of a series of peace talks that have yet to move beyond confidence-building measures.  

The deputy leader of the Prachachat Party, Worawit Baru, one of the speakers at last week’s seminar, was quick to distance himself from any call for a referendum, saying he was only speaking about such rights in general terms.

Other parties also ran for cover. Particularly disappointing to many participants was the leader of the Fair Party, Pitipong Temcharoen, whose party campaigns heavily in the far south, playing up local identity, freedom of speech, justice and equality for the Malay people and their cultural narrative. 

Instead of supporting free speech and freedom of expression, Pitipong’s first move was to save his own skin. He posted on Facebook that his party does not support separatism and anybody who embraces such ideas or engaged in such activities should face disciplinary action. 

Fair Party deputy secretary general Hakim Pongtigor, an ethnic Malay in the far south and a strong supporter of the right to self-determination who spoke at the event, has been under heavy pressure from his supporters to leave the party because of what Pitipong posted. 

“Declaring Patani an independent state is a crime, but talking about it should not be,” Hakim said. (The term “Patani,” spelled in English without the double “t,” refers to Deep South region of Thailand.)

Artef Sohko, president of The Patani political movement and one of the speakers at the seminar, said the aftermath of the event was a moment of truth for all the so-called pro-democracy political parties currently trying to form a coalition government.

“Instead of standing up to the right-wing media and the government’s information operation as it tries to twist the seminar into some sort of a criminal event, some of these political figures were quick to distance themselves from the event for fear of being labeled as pro-separatist. All the students were asking is whether there should be a referendum for on the right to self-determination. They didn’t call for a separate state,” Artef said.

Seeds of separatist sentiment

Obviously, the student movement that organized the seminar was pushing that line. Given the new political atmosphere in the country, they felt the need to test the waters.

As people who grew up with the constant threat of martial law and emergency decrees, legislation that former prime minister Anand Panyaranchun once called a “license to kill,” these students have observed the changing political landscape in Thailand and believe important issues such as the right to self-determination and referenda should no longer be discussed in the dark.

They also know that declaring independence for any region is a crime under Thai law.

But judging from the reaction from the Fourth Army Area, the command that oversees the day-to-day security situation in the far south, it appeared that the military will not let the new political landscape take over without a fight. 

Indeed, the battle has always been over narratives. On one side, the Malay-speaking far south is an integral part of Thailand. On the other side, the Patani region belongs to the Malays and that the Muslims here have the moral obligation to liberate this historical homeland from the invaders. 

One of the speakers at the event, Associate Professor Mark Tamthai, who spoke via video streaming from Chiang Mai, said both sides have always claimed that the people are with them. But there is no concrete evidence, such as a referendum, to support their claim.

Tamthai was the chief negotiator for the southern peace negotiation during the Abhisit Vejjajiva government.

The recently concluded Thai general election saw democracy and Malay nationalism came up quite prominently in the Patani region. But politicians had their priorities elsewhere; Patani nationalism and talks of a peace process don’t win votes.

But they can dodge the issue for only so long. At a recent press conference, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party and currently the frontrunner for the prime minister’s post, was put on the spot when asked if a government under his leadership would allow the far south go independent. 

Pita tried to play it safe and suggested that the conflict was rooted in the region’s livelihood, public health, and economy. His party’s anti-military stance blinded him from reaching a thorough and deeper understanding of this century-old conflict that continues to surface generation after generation.

The fact that Pita doesn’t have any Melayu (ethnic Malays) in any key position working on conflict resolution in Patani suggested that he doesn’t understand the sentiment of the people here. In this respect, Move Forward is not much different from other parties. 

The army’s critics like to point to the mistakes and atrocities committed by the state to explain the reasons for armed rebellion. But a new generation of fighters were being groomed in the 1990s when the situation was quite calm. They would surface in mid-2001 but were dismissed by the government of Thaksin Shinawatra as “sparrow bandits.”

An arms heist on January 4, 2004, from which combatants from the separatist Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) made off with more than 350 weapons, forced the government in Bangkok to acknowledge their presence. 

In fact, the narrative that ethnic Malays have a moral obligation to liberate their homeland from the invading Siamese has never died. 

The new crop of incoming Thai political leaders should know that their good intentions will not end the conflict or get the Malays to stop dreaming about Merdeka. They can be as benevolent they want. But a benevolent colonial master is still a colonial master.

While Pita’s off-the-wall statement could be excused because he is not familiar with the conflict and its complexity, Fair Party secretary general Kannavee Suebsang jolted a lot of people with his statement about the need to replace Malaysia with Indonesia as the mediator for the peace talks with BRN, the group that controls the combatants on the ground.

Textbooks on conflict studies may suggest that Malaysia is not qualified as an honest broker because its geographical proximity to Thailand’s Patani region. But nobody in Southeast Asia cares much about what the textbooks say, do they?

There is no honest broker anywhere in Southeast Asia, a region where states are fraught with overlapping claims and territorial disputes – a legacy of the colonial powers.

Whoever comes into the next Thai government should ask the people of Patani, regardless of ethnicity and race, what they really want. If they opt for independence, then the state will know that it has to work that much harder to win them over.

Who knows, the right to self-determination could be that missing term of endearment needed for peaceful co-existence. Indeed, nobody ever said governing was easy. 

An artist takes part in a graffiti event as part of the Saiburi Street Xhibit in Pattani - one of Thailand's southernmost Muslim majority provinces hit by a deadly insurgency - on February 28, 2016. Photo: AFP/Madree Tohlala 

Asmadee Bueheng is a freelance writer based in the Patani region of southern Thailand. He is the author of Rawang Thang Satta (“Along the Road of Faith”), published in March 2023.