The appointment of the first civilian to lead Thailand in negotiations with BRN rebels is up for renewal as a new government comes into being.
Commentary by Don Pathan
The sudden change in the prime minister at the top of Thailand’s government will have little impact on southern peace talks because the ruling party has never made this a priority.
The Pheu Thai Party returned to power in September 2023 through a post-electoral Faustian deal with civil-military political parties, even though it had promised not to work with them. Since taking office last year and before Srettha Thavisin was removed as PM through a court order on Aug. 14, Pheu Thai’s focus has consistently been on the economy, an issue with which it still struggles.
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| Justice Minister Thawee Sodsong (red shirt) in front of bombed-out police flat in Yala, on June 30, 2024. (Photo: Royal Thai Police) |
Meanwhile, efforts are being made to replace the chief Thai negotiator. Under existing regulations for the peace talks, the mandate of Chatchai Bangchuad, the civilian who serves as the chief Thai negotiator, is expected to end after the cabinet of new Prime Minister Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra is installed.
Chatchai, who is also deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, has been leading Thailand’s negotiating team for about seven months in talks with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the most powerful of insurgent groups in the far south.
He has succeeded in getting the BRN to agree to a framework for the peace process, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan towards Peace (JCPP).
Agreeing on the framework for the talks may not be as difficult as negotiating on the nitty-gritty of three substantive issues: A cessation of hostilities and reduction of violence; a public consultation process; and discussions toward realizing a political solution in settling the conflict in the majority-Muslim southern border region that has claimed at least 7,400 lives since 2004.
The agreement, nevertheless, is a step in the right direction. In late June, the then-Malaysian facilitator for the talks, Gen. Zulkifli Zainal Abidin, issued a press statement to welcome this move. A formal endorsement of the framework by all the parties is expected in September.
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| Thailand's Chatchai, Facilitator Zulkifli, and BRN's Anas Abdulrahman, Feb. 7, 2024 (BernaNews) |
However, the ouster of Prime Minister Srettha by the Constitutional Court has disrupted that. In a 5-4 vote, it ordered him removed from office immediately for having committed what the court deemed was a gross ethical violation through appointing a convicted felon, Pichit Chuenban, to his cabinet.
The removal of Srettha and his ministers means the JCPP will have to wait until the new cabinet reinstates Chatchai or appoints a new chief negotiator.
Because Srettha and his replacement, Ung Ing, are from the same party, one would assume that the government’s transition and the agenda for the peace talks would go uninterrupted.
But nothing comes easy in the far south. Chatchai’s Peace Dialogue Panel has been facing criticism from government advisors and hardliners, many of whom never liked the idea of talking to the rebels in the first place. They see the peace talks as “unnecessarily” giving BRN the legitimacy they don’t deserve.
Unfortunately for Chatchai and his team, the harshest criticism came from one of the most trusted voices in the Pheu Thai circle.
The recent blasting of the JCPP by Professor Surachart Bamrungsuk, a security expert from Chulalongkorn University jolted not only Chatchai and his team, but members of a parliamentary ad hoc committee tasked with coming up with recommendations on how to improve the peace talks. Surachart is not a Pheu Thai member but has close ties to the party and has the ear of Pheu Thai officials.
According to sources close to the sub-committee, it is drafting a report said to be very progressive. It contains suggestions for the government and lawmakers to open up social, cultural, and political space for the Malays in the far south as a way to win hearts and minds of a people who continue to reject Thailand’s nation-state construct and narrative on the grounds that it undermines their ethno-religious identity.
The draft report also calls on the peace talks to go beyond confidence-building measures (CBM) and take up more substantive issues on the table. The recommendations are expected to be handed over to Parliament before the end of this Fiscal Year, Sept. 30.
Like the Peace Dialogue Panel, members of this ad hoc committee are also concerned that their recommendations will be dead on arrival.
If Professor Surachart is not willing to give the JCPP the benefit of the doubt, then, in their view, there isn’t much hope for the committee’s recommendations.
Surachart accused the negotiators of overstepping their boundary and said that any talks with the rebels must include a demand for the reduction of violence, something that the BRN is not willing to do.
Working towards the reduction of violence and respecting rules of engagement are fine in principle but a formal agreement on cessation of hostilities, in BRN’s view, is little more than a form of surrender.
Amid the criticism that placed the negotiators in an uncomfortable position, moves are being taken by individuals, including a retired army general, who thinks he can do a better job.
Nobody is expected to make a big fuss if the new Pheu Thai government appoints another army general as the chief negotiator, even if it means going back on their words about promoting civilian supremacy in peace talks.
But if the excuse for Chatchai’s removal has anything to do with Surachart’s criticism, it could mean an end to the JCPP as we know it.
Regardless of who becomes the chief negotiator, Thailand still has to overcome some serious obstacles, such as agreeing on the nature of the conflict itself.
The actions of successive governments – dispatching negotiators to meet with BRN representatives – are a testimony that they acknowledge the political underpinnings of the conflict. But many hardliners still believe they can end the conflict via military means and come out victorious without making any concessions to the BRN or the Malays in the far south.
Separately, Malaysia has recently appointed a new facilitator, Mohd Rabin Basir, for the talks between the Thai government and BRN. Familiarity with the intricacies of the negotiations will take some time, but the new facilitator appears to be off to a good start.
Thai officials said Rabin was not too keen on protocol and that he was encouraging direct engagement between the BRN representatives and Thai negotiators. Less structured, more direct and personal appeared to be Rabin’s approach to the peace process, one Thai official said.
How this plays out in terms of deeper discussion on the JCPP, on the other hand, remains to be seen.
Don Pathan is a Thailand-based security analyst. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.
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