Without recognition of the insurgents' BRN political wing, the PM's effort to kick-start talks could be doomed from the start
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is expected to introduce General Aksara Kerdphol, the new chief negotiator for the peace talks with separatist groups in Thailand's deep South, during his visit to Malaysia on Monday.
Malaysia was designated as facilitator for the peace talks launched by the previous government of Yingluck Shinawatra, and Bangkok is expected to request that Kuala Lumpur continue in the role.
The visit could be a bit awkward for Prayut given the fact that the Royal Thai Army was never on board the Yingluckpeace initiative. The Army reluctantly played along, all the while looking for ways to covertly sabotage the process. One way was to permit the return of former Bersatu leader Wan Kadir Che Man, to criticise Malaysia and other international mediators working on the conflict.
General Aksara is chairman of the Army's advisory panel and a former Army chief-of-staff. Under the Yingluckgovernment, the job of chief negotiator was given to the National Security Council secretary-general, Paradon Patanatabut. The main driver behind the team back then was Police Colonel Thawee Sodsong, then secretary-general of the Southern Border Province Administration Centre. The two men enjoyed a close working relationship with Yingluck's brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. That explains why they were sidelined after the coup in May.
Now that the Army is in the driving seat, the government in Bangkok is thinking hard about how to move the peace initiative forward. It is generally agreed that the talks should be as inclusive as possible. The Thai military is confident that many longstanding separatist groups will send their people to the talks. But the participation of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) - the group with the highest number of insurgent combatants - is still uncertain.
The Thai side is also toying with the idea of "back-channel" meetings with each of these groups in a bid to get a better understanding of their capacity and capability. The one-on-one discussions would centre on militant operations and rules of engagement, while the political issues would be kept separate as part of the official "Track I" process.
A source from the BRN said that while his group is sitting out of the Track I process, his leaders had not ruled out the idea of joining the back-channel talks.
But the BRN is concerned with a more immediate goal, which is to strengthen the group's political wing so it can engage the international community and the public on its own terms, rather than be dictated to by Malaysia or Thailand.
Yet without formal recognition from the state actors, the so-called political wing will remain just another criminal element in the eyes of Bangkok.
Talking to separatist groups is nothing new for the Thai authorities. But Yingluck was the first to make it official and thus give the general public hope that peace was within sight.
According to BRN sources, Yingluck's team made a mistake in thinking they could launch a process, place someone with little influence over the insurgents in the person of Hasan Taib at its centre, and that would be enough to generate success.
Hasan didn't have the mandate of the BRN leadership or the support of the insurgent cells, which explains why the insurgents continue to attack the Thai security forces unabated.
Unfortunately, the announcement by the Thai military government that it is restarting peace talks has generated little excitement among the general public. But that's not such a bad thing, said a senior military officer, because the government doesn't want to mislead the public or encourage unrealistic expectations, which was the case when Paradon and Thawee were overseeing the process.
The absence of public fanfare hasn't stopped foreign mediators from looking for a seat at the latest round of peace talks if and when it gets under way.
One group has approached former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda, while another group, with the help of former Thai foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai, has been talking with Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla. Surakiart recently stated publicly that Indonesia should be one of the mediators, along with Malaysia, in the deep South peace process.
Surakiart may have been trying to promote inclusiveness. But if the past 10 years of peace efforts tell us anything it is that the business of mediation is extremely territorial.
Some of the longstanding separatist movements are also making their moves. A photo of a Japanese representative with the late Patani Malay academic Ahmed Somboon Bualuang, meeting with Patani Malay exiled representatives over coffee in Europe, has been doing the rounds on social media and raising eyebrows among observers and other stakeholders.
After all, appearances in public made by potential players are often engineered with some degree of calculation. There are no paparazzi in this game, just self-promoting videos and selfies.
Recent months have also seen the emergence of Wae Hamad Wae Yusuf, the head of the Patani Malay Consultative Congress, the onetime legislative branch of the now-defunct Bersatu separatist umbrella organisation. He announced the independence of Patani, the Malay historical homeland that encompasses the three Malay-speaking provinces in Thailand's far South.
"Pak Hamad was just testing the water," said a senior Thai military officer, who advised against public reaction to the announcement.
Thailand's idea of inclusiveness would be a wise one if all the players agreed to play ball. But this is the deep South, a landscape of fractured insurgency where nothing comes easy. BRN sources say the longstanding insurgent groups can play all the angles they want, but at the end of the day, without the participation of the BRN, the game won't change.
The ball is in Thailand's court, they say, because it is up to Bangkok to make the talks "work" by recognising the legitimacy of the BRN's political wing. And that means formal recognition from not just the Thais but also the international community.
Today, being a member of the BRN organisation can put a person behind bars. Well-known youth activist Muhamadanwan "Anwar" Hayith is a case in point. The predicament of Anwar illustrates the fact that Thai-BRN relations still have a long way to go before mutual respect can be established.
Don Pathan is a member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com) and a freelance development and security consultant based in Yala.
Malaysia was designated as facilitator for the peace talks launched by the previous government of Yingluck Shinawatra, and Bangkok is expected to request that Kuala Lumpur continue in the role.
The visit could be a bit awkward for Prayut given the fact that the Royal Thai Army was never on board the Yingluckpeace initiative. The Army reluctantly played along, all the while looking for ways to covertly sabotage the process. One way was to permit the return of former Bersatu leader Wan Kadir Che Man, to criticise Malaysia and other international mediators working on the conflict.
General Aksara is chairman of the Army's advisory panel and a former Army chief-of-staff. Under the Yingluckgovernment, the job of chief negotiator was given to the National Security Council secretary-general, Paradon Patanatabut. The main driver behind the team back then was Police Colonel Thawee Sodsong, then secretary-general of the Southern Border Province Administration Centre. The two men enjoyed a close working relationship with Yingluck's brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. That explains why they were sidelined after the coup in May.
Now that the Army is in the driving seat, the government in Bangkok is thinking hard about how to move the peace initiative forward. It is generally agreed that the talks should be as inclusive as possible. The Thai military is confident that many longstanding separatist groups will send their people to the talks. But the participation of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) - the group with the highest number of insurgent combatants - is still uncertain.
The Thai side is also toying with the idea of "back-channel" meetings with each of these groups in a bid to get a better understanding of their capacity and capability. The one-on-one discussions would centre on militant operations and rules of engagement, while the political issues would be kept separate as part of the official "Track I" process.
A source from the BRN said that while his group is sitting out of the Track I process, his leaders had not ruled out the idea of joining the back-channel talks.
But the BRN is concerned with a more immediate goal, which is to strengthen the group's political wing so it can engage the international community and the public on its own terms, rather than be dictated to by Malaysia or Thailand.
Yet without formal recognition from the state actors, the so-called political wing will remain just another criminal element in the eyes of Bangkok.
Talking to separatist groups is nothing new for the Thai authorities. But Yingluck was the first to make it official and thus give the general public hope that peace was within sight.
According to BRN sources, Yingluck's team made a mistake in thinking they could launch a process, place someone with little influence over the insurgents in the person of Hasan Taib at its centre, and that would be enough to generate success.
Hasan didn't have the mandate of the BRN leadership or the support of the insurgent cells, which explains why the insurgents continue to attack the Thai security forces unabated.
Unfortunately, the announcement by the Thai military government that it is restarting peace talks has generated little excitement among the general public. But that's not such a bad thing, said a senior military officer, because the government doesn't want to mislead the public or encourage unrealistic expectations, which was the case when Paradon and Thawee were overseeing the process.
The absence of public fanfare hasn't stopped foreign mediators from looking for a seat at the latest round of peace talks if and when it gets under way.
One group has approached former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda, while another group, with the help of former Thai foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai, has been talking with Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla. Surakiart recently stated publicly that Indonesia should be one of the mediators, along with Malaysia, in the deep South peace process.
Surakiart may have been trying to promote inclusiveness. But if the past 10 years of peace efforts tell us anything it is that the business of mediation is extremely territorial.
Some of the longstanding separatist movements are also making their moves. A photo of a Japanese representative with the late Patani Malay academic Ahmed Somboon Bualuang, meeting with Patani Malay exiled representatives over coffee in Europe, has been doing the rounds on social media and raising eyebrows among observers and other stakeholders.
After all, appearances in public made by potential players are often engineered with some degree of calculation. There are no paparazzi in this game, just self-promoting videos and selfies.
Recent months have also seen the emergence of Wae Hamad Wae Yusuf, the head of the Patani Malay Consultative Congress, the onetime legislative branch of the now-defunct Bersatu separatist umbrella organisation. He announced the independence of Patani, the Malay historical homeland that encompasses the three Malay-speaking provinces in Thailand's far South.
"Pak Hamad was just testing the water," said a senior Thai military officer, who advised against public reaction to the announcement.
Thailand's idea of inclusiveness would be a wise one if all the players agreed to play ball. But this is the deep South, a landscape of fractured insurgency where nothing comes easy. BRN sources say the longstanding insurgent groups can play all the angles they want, but at the end of the day, without the participation of the BRN, the game won't change.
The ball is in Thailand's court, they say, because it is up to Bangkok to make the talks "work" by recognising the legitimacy of the BRN's political wing. And that means formal recognition from not just the Thais but also the international community.
Today, being a member of the BRN organisation can put a person behind bars. Well-known youth activist Muhamadanwan "Anwar" Hayith is a case in point. The predicament of Anwar illustrates the fact that Thai-BRN relations still have a long way to go before mutual respect can be established.
Don Pathan is a member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com) and a freelance development and security consultant based in Yala.
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