Ball now in govt's court as BRN peace talks look to be over

By Don Pathan

It is not the first time that Hassan Taib, the "liaison" for the ongoing dialogue between the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) and the Thai government, has threatened to quit the peace process. But he keeps coming back to relay more or less the same demands and the process has continued.

But the recent release of a statement on YouTube by three hooded men suggests that the peace talks are on their last legs.

In the video clip, the hooded men said there would be no more talks until the Thai side meets earlier-stated demands, such as the withdrawal of non-permanent troops from the region, a release of all prisoners and detainees and the dropping of charges against suspected insurgents.

International observers - from ASEAN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) - must also be permitted to sit in on future negotiations.

Deputy Prime Minister Pracha Promnog, the head of national security, did not dismiss the three hooded men's statement as a hoax. In a face-saving statement, Pracha said the three were trying to stall the talks, not derail them entirely.

Sources in the movement told The Nation that the three were legitimate sources and maintained that the peace process was likely to become history. But that does not mean they will never talk to the Thais again.

Thai security planners are wondering, meanwhile, about future encounters with the BRN should the current process be derailed. One thing the Thais would like to see is a new "liaison" from the BRN-C's inner circle and possibly a person known among the Patani Malays.

Hassan doesn't fit any of these descriptions. He leads a motley crew that includes a couple of BRN cadres, who do not take orders from him, but report back to the BRN's political wing.

Sources in the BRN-C said the movement's political wing would not surface, let alone go to any negotiating table, unless the Thai government grants diplomatic immunity - something they say is standard practice internationally when entering peace negotiations.

They also want a guarantee that Kuala Lumpur, in its capacity as "facilitator", will not deport them to Thailand.

In fact, many exiled Patani Malay leaders said that since the late 1990s - when some of their associates were deported back to Thailand and are now doing life sentences - they have yet to resolve their differences with Kuala Lumpur.

The idea of scrapping the current peace talks gained momentum following a number of humiliating developments, such as the failure to establish a ceasefire during the holy month of Ramadan.

A new peace process should not be a "political circus" like the current one, one BRN source said. This would mean no more YouTube and "microphone diplomacy" as all discussions would be carried out discreetly.

Besides granting immunity to members of the BRN political wing, the Thai Parliament would be asked to endorse the peace process. In other words, the talks would have to be state-sanctioned - not just reliant on one government administration that might be here today, but gone tomorrow.

Indeed, both sides have had difficulties with this microphone diplomacy. On the Thai side, negotiators are quickly running out of spin and justification for keeping the talks going. They had pinned their hopes on an immediate reduction in violence, while ignoring the fact that Hassan and his crew don't have much influence on the BRN leadership - much less cell leaders on the ground.

The government's unexpected announcement on February 28 that it intended to enter into peace negotiations generated incredibly high expectations among the public. And so when violence continued, Team Thailand, led by heads of the National Security Council and Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre - two of the Pheu Thai Party's favourite bureaucrats - were lost for words except to accuse the other side of being peace breakers.

For Hassan and his team, microphone diplomacy means responding to some nagging questions and allegations, such as the attacks on soft targets and the assassination Yacob Raimanee, the Imam of the Pattani Central Mosque, described as "Bangkok's man in the deep South".

The video clip posted on Tuesday evening could very well be the last nail in the coffin for the current peace talks. For a new initiative to start, immunity and a guarantee that no deportations will be carried out - as well as parliamentary endorsement of the peace process - would need to be put on the table first.

It's up to Bangkok to respond.