Thaksin goes for greater foreign glory

Don Pathan
The Nation

From the very start of the Thai Rak Thai election campaign to the present, the Thaksin administration has repeatedly made it clear its priority will be to improve ties with neighbouring countries and the region.

Indeed, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's personal touch has made it possible for Thailand and neighbouring countries, namely Laos and Burma, to come to the table and resume their dialogue after a number of security hiccups during the last administration.

In principle there is nothing wrong with this idea of existing peacefully with one's neighbours. But putting this in real terms, on the other hand, is entirely another matter.

Since his fence-mending visit to Rangoon last June, Thaksin and his administration went to great pains to show that the two sides are letting bygones be bygones. Cross-border trade is back on track and the overall mood is on the upswing. There have been talks on joint fisheries projects, as well as crop-substitution programmes in an area controlled by one of the world's largest drug armies.

Thailand is determined to make the best out of what it has achieved in the one year that Thaksin has been in power. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has already announced his second trip to Burma, which will be followed by Thaksin himself, also on his second visit to the country.

The big question for many people is how long will this hiatus last? If it does, will it lead to anything constructive and more permanent?

For one thing, says Chulalongkorn University's Panitan Wattanayagorn, the fundamental problems between the two countries remain unchanged. Any quick-fix approach could very well come at the expense of a higher cost in the long run, he said.

Government officials and soldiers on the frontline say Thaksin has been too quick to appease Burma with little consideration to what Thailand should be getting in return.

A good lesson was the recent Joint Commission (JC) in Phuket between the two countries' foreign ministers. With the exception of fisheries, the meeting concluded with core bilateral issues such as drug trafficking, border security and the repatriation of some 100,000 Burmese refugees - who Rangoon often refers to as family members of rebel fighters - still pending with no solution in sight.

Speaking to The Nation on the side of the two-day Phuket meeting, Win Aung made it clear that Thailand's drug habit is not Burma's problem. And if the Thai government wants the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army to stop their illicit activities, Thailand is going to have to pay for it. And don't even think about the military option.

On the repatriation of 100,000 Burmese refugees, the two sides are still as far apart as ever. Rangoon hasn't even acknowledged that they were displaced after decades of war.

With not much else to show for the talks, the Bt20 million for a crop-substitution project in an area controlled by the Wa drug army, along with Rangoon's decision to build a "holding centre" to house deported Burmese workers, was flaunted as a great success by the two foreign ministers.

As for neighbouring Laos, the defining moment for Thaksin will come when Thailand has to decide whether to deport the 28 armed men who in July 2000 stormed a Lao border checkpoint, taking over a government building as they demanded an end to Communist rule.

The problem for Thaksin is that about half of the 28 are Thai nationals. Deporting them to Laos could put a big dent in his popularity.

Vientiane has made it clear that the deportation of these 28 so-called "freedom fighters" will be a defining moment for Thai-Lao relations. Laos is said to be planning a strong protest if there is a move to grant the 28 men political asylum so they can qualify for resettlement in a third country.

In spite of the pending problems with neighbouring countries, Thaksin has got his eye on bigger and better things. With his upcoming visit to China and India, the Thai premier is looking to play higher level politics at a time when security arrangements between the world's major powers is being worked out in light of the post-September 11 world.

Bangkok-based diplomats say his upcoming visit to China, his third since taking over the government, will rub many people the wrong way. Taking the middle ground has for decades been a characteristic of Thailand's diplomacy. A tilt to one major power or another could produce an outcome that may not be desirable.

But as the recent visit by the Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi has shown, Thaksin is a man who can take a licking and still keep on ticking. The Thai premier was snubbed by his Japanese counterpart when the free trade accord was not included in their discussions.