Thaksin Shuffles his Hand

The military and cabinet reshuffles have all but assured Thaksin’s hold on domestic politics. Now, he has his sights set on grander goals. 

By Don Pathan
The Irrawaddy

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra must have had some sleepless nights leading up to the bureaucratic shakeup. Given the outbreak of public criticism and mudslinging prior to the annual military reshuffle and the nagging from politicians looking to secure seats in the new cabinet lineup, the political pressure would have taken its toll on the PM. 

But with his overwhelming public mandate, a secure Parliamentary majority, and the hype surrounding his populist policies, there could be nothing left to stop the PM and his trusted lieutenants from selecting "the right man for the right job". Unscathed from his previous political imbroglios, Thaksin has learned that he has what it takes to squeak by and still come out on top. 

Although Thaksin maintains that he did his best regarding the new cabinet lineup and denies any interference with the annual military reshuffle, his power nevertheless seems more consolidated than ever before. And now that his relatives and close allies have assumed key military and government positions, everything should be smooth sailing from here on out—or so he hopes. 

For the past 20 months, Thaksin’s camp has swooped in on various government offices, removing and transferring a number of top posts in the Bank of Thailand, the Stock Exchange of Thailand and other state-owned enterprises like Krung Thai Bank. Moving in on the military’s turf, however, is a different story altogether. The men in uniform traditionally see themselves in a different light than other bureaucrats—as the defenders of national sovereignty. So when a here today, gone tomorrow politician comes barking orders, the top brass understandably takes offense. 

Unlike the previous administration, Thaksin and his men do not consider themselves fly-by-night officeholders. Judging from their track record over the previous 20 months, they are here to stay, and the military will have to get used to it—like it or not. After all, this is an administration elected to office with an unprecedented public mandate. In August, more than two months before the military reshuffle, Thaksin took the previously unimaginable step into a domain where past premiers had dared not stray too far. He handpicked the new army commander-in-chief, Somdhat Attanand, with the understanding that Somdhat would work with the outgoing Gen Surayud Chulanont to assemble the new military lineup. Initially, it seemed like a good idea on the surface. But in reality, it became a "big mess", to use the words of former Defense Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. 

As defense minister, Chavalit is entitled to his say in allocating military positions. But the deputy premier also knows that the political tides are turning against him. The challenge was to draw up a list that all sides would find satisfactory. But considering the high level of political interference and the number of hands in the cookie jar, it would have been impossible not to create any bitterness. 

The military posed the final barrier in this administration’s quest to consolidate its grip on the bureaucracy. The stakes were too high to leave the reshuffle in the hands of Gen Surayud, a man who has never seen eye-to-eye with the premier about Burma. Historically, politicians and the top brass have had to walk a fine line during reshuffles and bureaucratic appointments. The rule of thumb was that politicians were not supposed to do anything that would alienate the armed forces with their selections. On the other hand, military leaders were expected to stand firm while simultaneously presenting themselves as reasonable sorts who could negotiate and compromise with political leaders. This time around, however, the military has accepted the fact that civilian politicians, with the people’s indisputable mandate behind them, are now their superiors. For the men in uniform, this is a bitter pill to swallow. 

The decision to kick the widely respected Gen Surayud upstairs to the ceremonial post of armed forces supreme commander has raised a number of eyebrows. Another "promotion", genuinely a case of career advancement in this instance, is the appointment of the premier’s cousin, Gen Chaisit Shinawatra, to the post of assistant commander of the army. This places him in the top-five of the army hierarchy and makes him a likely candidate for the commander-in-chief post next year when Gen Somdhat, along with Gen Surayud, steps down at the mandatory retirement age of 60. Gen Surayud is seen by many as a professional soldier who helped exorcise the ghosts from the army’s May 1992 killing of unarmed protestors, and who restored public trust in Thailand’s armed forces.

His firm stance against Burma’s military build-up along their shared border, and his swift responses to repeated incursions by pro-Rangoon ethnic armies have earned him, as well as the armed forces, tremendous public support. But now, with Surayud out of the way, and Chavalit slowly fading from view, the spotlight has shifted to Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, the PM’s trusted aid. The decision to leave Burma in the hands of Surakiart irks Chavalit, who considers himself a "brother" of the junta. He took pride in his unique brand of defense diplomacy and often boasted of how it would save Thai-Burmese relations. In fact, a great deal of his political life has been devoted to Burma and Burma-related issues, so it was no surprise when he could no longer hold back his sarcastic remarks about the government handing Burma over to Surakiart. Criticizing the planned luncheon between the Thai and Burmese cabinets scheduled while the border remained closed, Chavalit quipped, "I accept the fact that we are friends…but that doesn’t mean we have to take orders from them." 

Surakiart will have big shoes to fill as he carries out the daunting task of patching things up with the junta, who never falter in keeping one step ahead of the Thais. Too bad for Surakiart. The Thai Foreign Ministry, unlike the armed forces, has never been regarded as a source of comfort for the Thai people. Thus, no matter what spin he puts on things, Surakiart faces an uphill battle trying to convince the public that his dealings with Burma are in the best interest of a people whose opinions are already fixed about the Burmese junta’s moral rectitude. 

As the tumult over these hectic rounds of military and Cabinet reshuffles dies down, and the new team settles in to their posts before embarking on a bureaucratic joy ride, the premier will again find some breathing space. Critics and political cartoonists have already had their turn taking jabs at the new lineup. While all the huffing and puffing from those who lost their seats have vented most of their steam. And now that the key people have been placed in their respective positions, political insiders say that Thaksin is turning his attention to bigger and better things. Thaksin, they say, wants to be seen as a regional leader; recognized as an exemplary statesman in the same light as Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamed and Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. And with Mahathir stepping down next year and Lee gradually sliding out of the picture as Singapore’s third generation of leaders takes over, Thaksin regards himself as the man to take center stage as leader of the region. 

Thaksin and his men have placed much hope and hype on the Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), presenting this forum as the launching pad from which Thaksin could achieve international stardom. But the informal gathering of Asian ministers has been billed merely as an expensive talk-fest lacking in direction, purpose, and political commitment. 

For the political commentators, journalists, and other Bangkok-based diplomats covering the event, the ACD became a sad joke. While nobody doubts Thaksin’s determination to become an international statesman, the people in Thaksin’s camp recognize that the reputations of Lee and Mahathir, like Rome, were not built in a day. Regardless of how much energy they spend trying to turn the telecom tycoon into a statesman of stature, Thaksin’s supporters know well that he is ultimately going to have to earn his reputation the old-fashioned way. There are no shortcuts to international stardom. If his handling of crises on an international scale—from the terrorist attacks against the US to the waxing and waning of Thai-Burmese bilateral ties—over the past 20 months is any indication, Thaksin’s quest to be recognized as an exemplary international statesman will not be smooth sailing at all.

https://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=2757&page=1

How a policeman dodged bullets in broad daylight

Don Pathan
The Nation

SUNGAI PADI, Narathiwat

Staff Sergeant Marohsae Moohanan has no problem going to bed at night but admits the pictures in his head still haunt him every now and then.

"They were within my vision. I could see them take the bullets," said the 33-year-old Pattani native who spent 11 years on the force. "We couldn't make out where the bullets were coming from."

For five minutes, Marohsae's life hung by a thread, and he did not know whether he was going to make it or not. Two of his colleagues were knocked down in the blink of an eye when three men sprayed them with AK47 automatic rifles as they were carrying out a routine assignment.

It was a sunny afternoon when the four officers, doubling up on two motorbikes, were on their way to a nearby school to provide a security escort for a group of schoolteachers on their way to their quarters. The officers at Sungai Padi police station have been doing this for the past year since the discovery of the bullet-riddled body of a teacher from a nearby district.

It was supposed to be a routine assignment, but it turned out to be one of the most haunting experiences of his life, Marohsae admits. "I emptied half of the magazine in my automatic rifle. We were about 30 to 40 metres away from them," he said.

Outnumbered and outgunned, Marohsae yelled at his partner to retreat until reinforcements arrived. But by then, the gunmen were gone and about 80 empty metal jackets were scattered along the small dirt road in the midst of a highly wooded area.

"This is the first time I have ever experienced anything like this," the officer admitted. "It's too bad. They were good guys," Marohsae said of his dead colleagues.

The local community echoed the sentiments, saying the two young officers had no enemies and that they don't understand why anybody would want to kill them.

The death of Marohsae's fellow officers is part of a spate of violence that has not only rocked the predominantly Muslim community in the country's deep South but also made a mockery of the nation's leadership in Bangkok who appear at a loss about what to do.

Since December last year, 21 police officers have been shot dead by automatic rifle fire, and not a soul has been brought to justice. Police chief Pol General Sant Saruthanond thinks the killings are the work of some influential figures who are determined to create a situation of instability so that they can continue to demand protection money from developers and businessmen in the region.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ruling out suggestions that Muslim separatists were behind the attacks, says the illicit activities may involve government officials as well. He also admits more work has to be done to bring the local community and government officials closer together.

Local residents and analysts say decades of heavy-handed tactics by the country's security apparatus, bent on weeding out separatists, still lingers in the minds of many Muslims.

During a recent visit to the region to meet with community and religious leaders, Sant boasted of a new government strategy that would guarantee all the security agencies - civilians, Army and police - pool their intelligence information. He admitted that in the past, intelligence tended to remain with the respective agencies but vowed that things would change from now on.

Still, the feeling on the ground does not reflect the optimism of political leaders, while morale is still low in spite of the 1,500 flak jackets passed out to officers by Sant himself. The jackets, locally made, are designed to stop .22 calibre and 44 magnum bullets - but all of the 21 dead policemen were shot with automatic rifles.

Officers manning checkpoints along the roads in remote areas opt for nearby bushes rather than stand behind their official sandbags, saying they were sitting ducks just waiting to be shot if they remain within the illuminated area.

Politicians dismissed suggestions the killing could be the work of Muslim separatists, calling the attackers "slapdash bandits". But a former leader of the Pattani United Liberation Organisation, or Pulo, says the government is not in a position to count anything out.

Because nobody seems to have a convincing answer to the killings, coupled with the fact that no one has been arrested for the incidents, the government's credibility in the eyes of the local community has been dented tremendously, says Yusof Longpi, the former secretary-general and a co-founder of Pulo.

"The psychological impact is tremendous. If you can take out police officers, then where is public safety, where is the leadership, and where is the direction?" asked the former rebel leader who surrendered in 1991 in return for a blanket amnesty.

Moonshine!

Koh Pha-ngan beckons with its lunar raves, dreamy beaches and the promise of nirvana. 

Don Pathan, The Nation

Madicken dropped out of her art school a year ago in Sweden and went globe trotting – London, Paris, North America and eventually this island just off Surat Thani.

There was no specific plan as to how long she was going stay in the Far East but it has been four months already, most of it spent on this island. And she doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere.

“This is a soul-searching trip for me,” said the soft-spoken 22-year-old Swedish woman who discovered a new sense of freedom, and a new sense of self, after being on her own for the first time.

Sitting cross-legged in her baggy Thai fishermen pants and skimpy little tank-top that allowed her belly button to peep through, there is a sense of optimism about her – the kind she said didn’t exist before she left home.

Years of living a sheltered life, coupled with nagging, overprotective parents, were just too much, said Madicken. 

There was no sense of confidence, little self-esteem and everything was provided for. But now, it’s “carpe diem – seize the day”.

“My brother and I are much closer now. We write to each other more often now,” she said.

Things changed. Lots happened. And for Madicken, it was for the better.

Blame it on Koh Pha-ngan, or what have you. But for many young adults stuck between a post-graduate life and a pre-career odyssey, this 30 sq-km island in the Gulf of Thailand has become some sort of an idyllic setting, a place to escape from the real world.

Marco, a Peruvian-Japanese from Lima, said he was sick and tired of the war back home and needed to get away really badly. The white sandy beach here makes him forget the senseless killings back in Peru. Friends back home probably wouldn’t recognise him now with his pierced lips and golden, dark tan. He admitted that he would have to revert to his “old self” once he leaves this place, saying it would be difficult to get a job if he was to show up for an interview with a ring through his bottom lip.

But recent grad Yuji said he was up for anything – at least until he returns to Japan and looks for a job in three months’ time.

Sitting in cool shade on the beach with his bongo drums between his legs, the Tokyo native arrived on this island a few days ago. He already had blond streaks in his hair from Japan, but had added a lip ring from Khao San Road to complete the package.

He decided afterwards that the ring was more trouble than it’s worth. 

“It just didn’t feel right,” Yuji said. So, off it went.

His partner Miyako, on the other hand, couldn’t give a hoot about anything.

“I quit my job so I could take this vacation,” said Miyako, giggling over a coke as she waited for the moon to come up so she and her boyfriend could rave the night away. 

She was a journalist.

Kacie and her friend Wehby, both from California, made Pha-ngan the last leg of their month-long trip.

“We work at this US$300 (Bt13,500) a day resort where visiting lawyers and doctors scream at you if their towels are missing,” Kacie said. “It’s just nice to be here and get away from all that.”

The two were awed by the friends they made on the trip and were just as pleased at how far the greenbacks can go.

“I just love this mai pen rai thing, you know?”

Dreadlocked Henry from the UK, on the other hand, had bigger plans for the island. 

Trying desperately to come across as a man with a vision – one generated from his intellect, not the grass he got from Rajasthan. (Supposed to be the best he ever tried. It grows wild and cows munch on it freely, he said.) 

Henry was talking about a whole new civilisation in the making. He was brought back to reality, a rude awakening perhaps, when he was told that he couldn’t toke his funny rolled up cigarette anywhere he pleases.

“I don’t understand this. This stuff is going to be legalised soon in the UK,” Henry said. So much for Henry’s civilisation here. 

No doubt about it, Koh Pha-ngan, together with its Full Moon party, has become a legend on the Asian travel circuit. Efforts have been made to maintain the local culture – whatever that means. The sign at the local all-night convenient store says it all: “Today Buddha. No sell Beer”. 

Three times a year, the Full Moon raves are pushed back one day so the party won’t have to coincide with a Buddhist holiday.

But that’s doesn’t seem to be a problem. Sand-loving farangs (and over the recent years quite a few Japanese youth) still flock here, seeing the island as their special place where they can bargain until the vendors turn blue and lose it on the Haad Rin Beach when the sun sets.

For those looking to remake themselves into something they can’t be back home, this island seems to be the place.

“It’s a bit pretentious. People trying to show they have achieved a new sense of spirituality and all that,” said Mika from Germany.

Pretentious or not, these kids appear to be having the time of their lives. 

Bare-breasted girls and sand-kicking boys who toss Frisbees and play volleyball during the day, rave the entire night away to hypnotic trance music and pass out from too much alcohol – or as some would have you believe – enter the state of nirvana. 

But after few weeks, fun gets old and reality kicks in. Visas run out and their coffers run empty.

And as they return home or move on to wherever, Koh Pha-ngan, too, will continue with its irreversible transformation brought about by the nasty machine of tourism, an industry that doesn’t seem to know when enough is enough. 

Perhaps Wehby was right – paradise will always be lost. “In ten years time, it could become another tourist trap. You can see it coming already,” he said.

The recently popped up 7-Eleven, the two rows of shophouses being built along the narrow alley leading to the popular Haad Rin Beach, the Internet shops at the main thoroughfare and the trash left on what would otherwise be a sandy beach – the signs are all there.

But until then it seems this half-baked paradise will continue to be their special place – their Garden of Eden.

BORDER BATTLE: Army hits Wa hard in dawn raid

12 of drug army's positions smashed in day of shelling 

By DON PATHAN
The Nation
Chiang Dao, Chiang Mai

Thai infantry units and armoured vehicles supported by artillery launched an all-out dawn offensive yesterday, destroying positions manned by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) along the Thai-Burmese border.

Burmese troops caught up in artillery fired by Thai troops.

Shelling of UWSA positions, which went on throughout the day, could be heard well inside Thai territory in border villages in Chiang Dao district. Artillery fire supported the advancing Thai soldiers, who are carrying out search-and-destroy missions against the UWSA's drug labs and military outposts just kilometres from the Burmese border.
At Ban Na Wai, a small Thai village about two kilometres from the border, about 60 Thais, mostly women and children, took refuge at a temple after fleeing their homes.

In a related development, rebel soldiers from the Shan State Army (SSA) also attacked both Wa positions and Burmese government positions, forcing more civilians from Burma's Shan State to flee over the border into Thailand.

Maj-General Pichanmeth Muangmanee, deputy commander of the Thai Third Army Region, told reporters that 150 refugees had fled into Thailand yesterday after a morning clash between the UWSA and SSA. Officially, the Army maintained that no Thai soldiers had crossed into Burmese territory.

Meanwhile in Bangkok Army spokesman Colonel Somkuan Saengpataranet denied any such raids had taken place, saying troops in northern Thailand were only taking part in an exercise, "Surasi 143". But eyewitnesses and intelligence officers, speaking on condition of anonymity, said this was not the case.

A dozen of the Wa's minor positions were destroyed in yesterday's raids but not the UWSA's three main strongholds of Kiw Cheng Kap, Don Fai and Kong Her Bin. Each of these is manned by between 200 and 300 soldiers, according to one estimate.

Armoured vehicles, soldiers from Special Forces units, Cavalry squadrons and artillery units have been seen taking up positions along the northern border in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai and Mae Hong Son provinces in the past few weeks.

In response to the moves by the Thai military, the Wa have reinforced their positions.
Military sources said the Burmese Army would not intervene to thwart the plan to destroy the UWSA, which Thailand claims is its main enemy because of its drug-related activities, adding that Rangoon had given the UWSA plenty of warnings to stop its illegal activities.
However, in Rangoon yesterday the Burmese Foreign Ministry summoned the Thai ambassador to receive a strongly worded official protest note over the incident.

Burmese Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win said the note contained details of an incident in which the Thai army used heavy artillery against outposts in Mongtong in eastern Shan State from before dawn.

"We protested in the strongest possible terms that the unprovoked attack violated our sovereignty and territorial integrity," Khin Maung Win was quoted as saying by Agence-France-Presse.
The Thai artillery attack came simultaneously as forces of Yawd Serk's Shan State Army crossed the border and attacked not only military outposts but also four other positions manned by the Wa, he said.

The 20,000-strong UWSA, a remnant of the now defunct Communist Party of Burma, entered into a cease-fire agreement with Rangoon in 1989 in return for limited self-rule.

Border Blowout

A changing balance of power along the Thai-Burma border has forced Thailand to re-think its buffer zone policy.

By Don Pathan
The Irrawaddy

As long as anybody can remember, Burma's armed ethnic groups operating along the Thai-Burmese border have always provided a buffer between the two nagging neighbors.

First, it was the Karen rebels who had taken the fight to the outskirts of Rangoon a half century ago following independence. This has been followed by the Burmese students' exodus by the thousands to the Thai border following a bloody crackdown in 1988. Then, the Mon rebels were crushed to pieces half a decade ago to make way for a lucrative gas pipeline running from Burma's Yadana gas field to Thailand. Now, only a handful of Shan and Karen groups, some of whom have surrendered in return for amnesty, function as the buffer zone between the Thai and Burmese armies.

Gen Bo Mya, leader of the KNU, with Don Patjhan

Over the past decade, the tides have turned in Rangoon's favor. Internal conflict within some rebel outfits have created splinter groups, altering the security arrangement and tremendously enhancing Burma's leverage in dealing with Thailand over border politics.

The Karen National Union (KNU), once a major challenge to Rangoon, have been forced to switch from conventional warfare to guerrilla tactics since losing their Manerplaw and Kawmoorah strongholds in 1995. The group's Fourth Brigade, which operates in areas opposite Thailand's Kanchanaburi and Ratchaburi provinces, has been severely weakened.
Local Karens who had once looked to Thailand for protection were forced to take up arms to defend themselves. One of the outfits that emerged following the fall of the Fourth Brigade was the God's Army, a rag-tag outfit that gained the world's attention because of its teenage twin leaders, believed to posses mystical powers.

Shortly after the KNU's fall from grace, opium warlord Khun Sa and his Mong Tai Army (MTA) surrendered to the junta in return for a generous amnesty in early 1996. This left MTA territories in Shan State that had traditionally served as a buffer up for grabs as Thai, Burmese, and Wa troops rushed in to hoist their flags. Khun Sa's stronghold in Ho Mong, opposite Mae Hong Son, was given to one of his former commanders, Col Maha Ja, who entered a ceasefire agreement with Rangoon in return for control over the area's natural resources.

Maha Ja has since tried desperately to brush off Ho Mong's old stigma, maintaining that his area is drug-free. He has challenged the international community to come and verify this for themselves while reaching out to Thailand to do business with him.

As these anti-Rangoon groups wither, the pro-Rangoon United Wa State Army (UWSA) has emerged as a key player in cross-border security arrangements.

The UWSA formally came into being shortly after the Communist Party of Burma fell apart over a decade ago. A ceasefire agreement orchestrated by Burma's security chief Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt was reached soon afterwards in 1989. The aim was to neutralize the 20,000-strong Wa army, equipped with enough weapons to pose a serious challenge to Rangoon's rule. Rangoon wanted to prevent these weapons, most of which came from mainland Communist China, from falling into the hands of other rebel groups.

For the Wa, the ceasefire provided an opportunity to expand their heroin empire from their stronghold in Panghsang on the Chinese border to a new frontier along the Thai-Burmese border.

This expansion meant that war between the UWSA and their main rival and business competitor, the MTA, was inevitable. Unable to cope with a two-front war, as well as bickering among different MTA factions, Khun Sa eventually surrendered to Rangoon.

Once the dust settled following Khun Sa's capitulation, coupled with other ethnic groups entering into the "legal fold", Rangoon felt it could be more assertive. The generals in Rangoon had ordered the UWSA to move back to Panghsang, issuing two ultimatums without specifying the consequences. The order was ignored, however, proving to the junta and the international community that the UWSA was nobody's lapdog. Once the junta realized that the Wa were no pushover, they decided to work with the UWSA. Today, the Wa have become one of the most important cards in Rangoon's hand when negotiating Thai-Burmese relations.

Initially, things appeared to be going as planned. Well over 1,000 Thai construction workers were invited across the border to help build roads, schools, clinics, small hydroelectric dams and other buildings in Wa-controlled areas. Twice a week, Thai merchants lined up with everything from meat and vegetables to petroleum and construction materials waiting to enter the Wa-controlled area opposite Chiang Mai's Mae Ai and Fang districts.

This development allowed the Wa army to significantly strengthen their southern military commands and tighten their grip over the area through forced relocations. Thousands of ethnic Wa, Shan and Chinese from the northern border were forced to relocate to newly created towns along the Thai border adjacent to Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. This did not sit well with the Thai Army, whose uneasiness was growing daily as peasants from northern Burma arrived at their doorstep by the truckloads.

A turning point came in early 1999, when the corpses of nine Thai nationals showed up along the northern border in Fang district; a drug deal gone bad according to authorities who suggested that all fingers pointed to the Wa.

Soon afterwards, border checkpoints leading to the UWSA-controlled Mong Yawn were ordered closed, and the Thai workers and construction companies were ordered to return home. The UWSA became public enemy number one and have since been a thorn in relations between the two countries.

Until the current administration took power early last year, Thailand played hardball with Rangoon, demanding that the junta be held accountable for the Wa's illicit activities. There were suggestions that the only way to end the drug problem was to take out the 20,000-strong UWSA through military means.

But Rangoon made it clear that using military force was out of the question, saying that Thailand's drug habit was not Burma's problem and that this habit should not interfere with Rangoon's hard-won ceasefire agreement.

In May of this year, the Thai Army decided to teach the Wa an important lesson. Their swift "retaliations" against the drug army were meant to demonstrate that Thailand would no longer tolerate the Wa's activities.

The stern action caught everybody off guard, including the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which was left in the dark about what was happening along the border.

While Thai soldiers were slugging it out with the Wa, the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) took advantage of the situation and launched their own offensive against the Burmese causing the entire border to go up in smoke and sending Thai-Burmese ties into a tailspin.

Rangoon responded angrily, accusing the Thai army of supporting the SSA-S and lashing out at Bangkok for being "insincere" and "bare-faced liars".

Indeed, the Thai Army's swift response to the Wa not only irked Rangoon, but Thaksin as well. Thaksin came into office vowing to patch things up with Rangoon. However, he overlooked the intricacies and long history of Thai-Burmese border politics.

While trying desperately to convince Rangoon of his sincerity, the premier inadvertently neglected domestic sentiments. The local press and academics came down hard on Thaksin after he accused his own army of overreacting and ordered troops to pull back from the border.

The premier again shot himself in the foot when he said the army would end its tacit policy of using Burmese insurgent groups as a "buffer". He also said that aid organizations tending to over 100,000 refugees displaced by decades of fighting would have to scale down their operations. He accused them of interfering with Thailand's effort to normalize ties with Burma.

Thai security planners are split over how to deal with Burma. Critics say Thaksin is too quick to appease Rangoon, and warn that his policy could damage Thailand's international standing for coddling one of the world's most condemned regimes.

For now, Thaksin is stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea—convinced that his brand of "personal diplomacy" with Burma will eventually prevail, but not sure how to get his armed forces to jump on the bandwagon. All eyes will be on Thai army chief, General Surayud Chulanont, to see whether this popular commander will retain his current post or be transferred to sit out the last year of his distinguished career watching bilateral developments from the sidelines.

Observers say Surayud's professional fate means everything. Currently, Thailand is caught between standing firm with Rangoon—by holding the junta accountable for the spillover caused by its ethnic conflicts—and offering an olive branch to the Burmese junta, placing development and economic cooperation above all else, as the current administration is practicing. If the latter stance prevails, many will wonder how much Thailand will have to give in before the Burmese generals feel comfortable enough to show Thai leaders the cards they hold in their hands.

Thaksin goes for greater foreign glory

Don Pathan
The Nation

From the very start of the Thai Rak Thai election campaign to the present, the Thaksin administration has repeatedly made it clear its priority will be to improve ties with neighbouring countries and the region.

Indeed, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's personal touch has made it possible for Thailand and neighbouring countries, namely Laos and Burma, to come to the table and resume their dialogue after a number of security hiccups during the last administration.

In principle there is nothing wrong with this idea of existing peacefully with one's neighbours. But putting this in real terms, on the other hand, is entirely another matter.

Since his fence-mending visit to Rangoon last June, Thaksin and his administration went to great pains to show that the two sides are letting bygones be bygones. Cross-border trade is back on track and the overall mood is on the upswing. There have been talks on joint fisheries projects, as well as crop-substitution programmes in an area controlled by one of the world's largest drug armies.

Thailand is determined to make the best out of what it has achieved in the one year that Thaksin has been in power. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has already announced his second trip to Burma, which will be followed by Thaksin himself, also on his second visit to the country.

The big question for many people is how long will this hiatus last? If it does, will it lead to anything constructive and more permanent?

For one thing, says Chulalongkorn University's Panitan Wattanayagorn, the fundamental problems between the two countries remain unchanged. Any quick-fix approach could very well come at the expense of a higher cost in the long run, he said.

Government officials and soldiers on the frontline say Thaksin has been too quick to appease Burma with little consideration to what Thailand should be getting in return.

A good lesson was the recent Joint Commission (JC) in Phuket between the two countries' foreign ministers. With the exception of fisheries, the meeting concluded with core bilateral issues such as drug trafficking, border security and the repatriation of some 100,000 Burmese refugees - who Rangoon often refers to as family members of rebel fighters - still pending with no solution in sight.

Speaking to The Nation on the side of the two-day Phuket meeting, Win Aung made it clear that Thailand's drug habit is not Burma's problem. And if the Thai government wants the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army to stop their illicit activities, Thailand is going to have to pay for it. And don't even think about the military option.

On the repatriation of 100,000 Burmese refugees, the two sides are still as far apart as ever. Rangoon hasn't even acknowledged that they were displaced after decades of war.

With not much else to show for the talks, the Bt20 million for a crop-substitution project in an area controlled by the Wa drug army, along with Rangoon's decision to build a "holding centre" to house deported Burmese workers, was flaunted as a great success by the two foreign ministers.

As for neighbouring Laos, the defining moment for Thaksin will come when Thailand has to decide whether to deport the 28 armed men who in July 2000 stormed a Lao border checkpoint, taking over a government building as they demanded an end to Communist rule.

The problem for Thaksin is that about half of the 28 are Thai nationals. Deporting them to Laos could put a big dent in his popularity.

Vientiane has made it clear that the deportation of these 28 so-called "freedom fighters" will be a defining moment for Thai-Lao relations. Laos is said to be planning a strong protest if there is a move to grant the 28 men political asylum so they can qualify for resettlement in a third country.

In spite of the pending problems with neighbouring countries, Thaksin has got his eye on bigger and better things. With his upcoming visit to China and India, the Thai premier is looking to play higher level politics at a time when security arrangements between the world's major powers is being worked out in light of the post-September 11 world.

Bangkok-based diplomats say his upcoming visit to China, his third since taking over the government, will rub many people the wrong way. Taking the middle ground has for decades been a characteristic of Thailand's diplomacy. A tilt to one major power or another could produce an outcome that may not be desirable.

But as the recent visit by the Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi has shown, Thaksin is a man who can take a licking and still keep on ticking. The Thai premier was snubbed by his Japanese counterpart when the free trade accord was not included in their discussions.

Thailand hammered on diplomatic front

Don Pathan
The Nation

Thailand's international standing has been declining steadily over the past year with the current administration showing no sign of changing its course.

Bangkok-based diplomats, analysts, and government officials blame the decline on the current administration's failure to incorporate the country's strong points - human rights, democracy, not to mention freedom of expression - into the government's foreign policy as if these things are something Thailand should be ashamed of.

"There is a saying that foreign policy begins at home," noted one Foreign Ministry official.

Another factor contributing to the decline is what many regards as a too-ambitious plan to turn Thailand into a major player in the global community.

In principle, turning Thailand into an international broker might not be such a bad idea. New diplomatic channels could open up and give more meaning to a multidimensional foreign policy, but Thailand could end up biting off more than it can chew because it doesn't seem to take into consideration the existing limitations, they say.

Observers say the current administration is unable to cope with the rapidly changing world that calls for swift and firm political maneuvering. The government's actions, they say, do not seem to be based on sound policies or rooted in any principles.

Indeed, from the Taleban's blowing up of the Bamiyan Buddha statues to the September 11 terrorist attack against the United States - and to the push to make Thailand the centre of gravity between East Asia and the subcontinent under the empty notion of "Asia Dialogue" - the Thaksin administration has displayed a serious lack of understanding as to what constitutes a sound foreign policy.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a foreign-affairs expert at Chulalongkorn University, says Thailand is stumbling into unfamiliar terrain and may be putting itself in a very uncomfortable position in a tug-of-war among powerful giants like the United States, China and India.

Moreover, many others say this so-called Asia Dialogue forum has no chance whatsoever of becoming a serious arena that will command respect.

Consider the European Union, where common political culture and economic practices bring all the members of this ethnically diverse continent together under one economic and political powerhouse - there is nothing in Asia to serve as the basis to unite these countries in such a manner.

For the time being, the idea of creating an "Asian Dialogue" - a rejuvenation of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's dream of an East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC) - is currently being floated around the world by Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai. Incidentally, it seems to have been forgotten that the reason the proposed EAEC failed the first time around was that it unnecessarily pitted the East against West.

Many Asian countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the Philippines, India, or Pakistan, either already have strong working ties with the United States or are on course to redefine their relations in light of the September 11 attacks.

Moreover, says one Bangkok-based diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, "There is no reason why South Asia and East Asia cannot come together themselves. They don't need Thailand to bring them together."

But convincing the world community that there is substance behind this "Asian Dialogue" will be difficult, unless of course, Thailand is satisfied with its becoming another talk shop.

"There isn't much commonality here in the region," said one observer, pointing to the absence of a uniform political culture or economic system in Asia.

There is also the issue of reforming the Foreign Ministry, turning it into a "proactive" body that would push the country into the global economic and political limelight.

"This may be good in principle. But the bureaucratic structure, the human resources, and the technical skills are just not there," Panitan said.

"This quick-fix attitude could inadvertently bring down the morale of the bureaucrats," he added.

There is also talk of engaging Russia and other former Soviet republics more forcefully. But after years of ignoring Moscow, no on seems to know anything about the former Soviet states, Panitan said.

Besides the "Asian Dialogue", there have been other incidents that show the new government lacks understanding of and sensitivity to political developments on a global scale.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shina-watra's inability to grasp politics at the international level was clearly displayed in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Instead of going straight to the US Embassy to show the world that Thailand, too, would not hesitate in condemning this hideous crime that had taken the lives of some 3,000 people, Thaksin sent out memos to all Thai embassies to see how many other leaders visited American embassies in their respective countries.

"There wouldn't be any hesitation as to what the premier should do if we took up a position based on some sort of principle," Thai officials say.

The government's handling of the Bamiyan Buddha statues in Afghanistan also showed it was unable to grasp the political significance of the issue, thus allowing opposition leader Chuan Leekpai to make Thaksin's foreign-policy team look amateurish.

Chuan outmaneuvered Thaksin by contacting UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan directly, thanking him for taking a firm position against the Taleban following its decision to blow up the statues. He also wrote to the then Taleban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, urging him to preserve what was deemed a world heritage site.

Thaksin, on the other hand, extended this gratitude to Unesco, a UN technical body that deals mainly with the preservation of ancient artifacts.

"This case was not just about some ancient statues that needed to be preserved. It was bigger than that, and the Thaksin government failed to see the political significance and political dimensions of this case," one observer said.

Thais Tired of Paying for Burmese

Don Pathan
The Irrawaddy

Some in Thailand are talking about getting tough with the Wa, Rangoon’s "partners in peace", whose drug-dealing ways have become a bane to Burma’s neighbors. 

Just when it seemed that things were smooth sailing for one of the world largest armed drug armies, along comes a maverick politician to rock the boat. In March, a ranking member of the Thai Parliament, Kobsak Chutikul, called on the United States to consider using surgical air strikes against the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA) if they do not stop their narcotics activities by 2005 as they have promised.

"Such surgical air strikes would be in line with the emerging international order following the Sept 11 terrorist attacks [against the US]," said Kobsak, the vice-chairman of the Lower House’s Foreign Affairs Committee and a former top-ranking diplomat. "The international community has the right to take action against those who pose a threat to humanity, wherever they may be," Kobsak added. 

The UWSA is one of the world’s largest suppliers of heroin and methamphetamines. The latter is locally known as "yaa baa" (crazy pills), and Thai military officials estimate that 800 million pills will enter Thailand this year. Burma replaced Afghanistan as the world’s largest source of heroin following the US-led air and ground war against the Taliban. 

Kobsak, the deputy leader of the Chat Thai Party, argued that narcotics and terrorism are two sides of the same coin because one feeds on the other. The elusive nature of terrorists’ and drug traffickers’ illicit operations are identical and they use the same legal loopholes that allow terrorists and drug traffickers to sneak in and out of countries and transfer money globally, he said. 

Kobsak maintained that any government that holds the well being of its citizens in the highest regard should not rule out such a military operation because the Wa’s illicit activities are "a threat to humanity". The problem with Kobsak’s statement is that it comes amid seemingly warming bilateral relations between Thailand and Burma. Dialogue between the two sides has been carried out on a regular basis, while negotiations over joint fisheries are reportedly back on the right track. 

There is also talk of Thailand financing a crop-substitution project in a Wa-controlled area adjacent to Thailand’s Chiang Rai province. Troops and officers on the frontline, however, say that the fundamental problems—drugs, insurgencies, refugees and overlapping territorial claims—still remain and that now is no time for complacency. 

The upswing in bilateral ties should not permit the authorities to let their guard down, as they said it wasn’t long ago that the two countries had engaged in a day-long cross-border shelling that resulted in the death of scores of people on both sides. 

There is also the argument that any military action against the Wa, such as surgical air strikes as suggested by Kobsak, would infringe on the sovereignty of Burma and its military government, which in 1989 cut a ceasefire deal with the Wa drug army in return for the latter’s autonomy. Rangoon has come out with some strong words following Kobsak’s remark, accusing the former diplomat of being a warmonger and overlooking its anti-narcotics efforts. 

Rangoon has also ruled out any military action against the Wa and added that Thailand’s drug habit should not be played out as Burma’s problem. Thai officials said that whether there would be an attack against the Wa or not, the improving diplomatic atmosphere should not be a free ticket for Rangoon to get out of the loop. 

Thai officials, particularly those on the frontline, maintained that the junta cannot continue to hide behind claims of protecting their sovereignty while at the same time saying they have no control over the Wa’s actions. In other words, the generals in Rangoon must be held accountable for the Wa’s illicit activities. Many have been critical of the Thai government for being "too generous" in its dealings with the UWSA, saying Bangkok should rethink its strategy. 

The Wa-Rangoon Connection The issue of drugs and insurgency is likely to remain a sour point between Thailand and Burma for some time to come. What concerns many people is that Thailand is becoming too complacent in dealing with the Burmese junta and too quick to take credit for what they claim to be an improving atmosphere. The heart of the problem, said observers, is much more complicated and the future rests on a number of factors—historical, strategic and economic—relating to Burma’s insurgencies. Rangoon has made it clear that they will not turn the clock back to the way things were when their troops and armed insurgent groups were at war.

After all, obtaining the ceasefire with the insurgent groups was not exactly a walk in the park. The UWSA came into being in 1989 shortly after the breakup of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which fractured along ethnic lines. The Wa, who made up the bulk of CPB’s foot soldiers, came together and organized themselves in Panghsang in northern Shan State bordering China. 

In spite of the historical mistrust between the Wa and the Burmese, Rangoon immediately signed a ceasefire with the group for fear that the weapons that the Wa had obtained from the Chinese would end up in the hands of the other groups—be it the Karen rebels or the Burmese student groups who took to the jungle after the military government came to power by gunning down thousands of pro-democracy protesters. With the ceasefire in 1989 came the green light to mobilize more troops southward, where a rival group, the Mong Tai Army of opium warlord Khun Sa, was based. 

Unable to cope with a two-front war, coupled with internal disputes within his own MTA, Khun Sa surrendered to Rangoon in 1996 in return for a generous amnesty. The opium warlord has a US $2 million price tag on his head following an indictment by a US Federal Court over drug trafficking.

Today, the Mong Yawn valley opposite Thailand’s Mae Ai district is a constant reminder of how the history of drugs and insurgencies in the trouble-plagued military state has unfolded. It is also a testimony that the Wa are nobody’s lap dog. They were told by Rangoon to go back to Panghsang shortly after Khun Sa’s surrender and they refused. In fact, Burmese troops must ask permission to enter Wa-controlled area. 

Today for the Wa, heroin money is financing everything from the construction of schools to dam building and other infrastructure project in eastern Shan State, which Rangoon sometimes refers to as "Wa State". For the time being, all sides have adopted a wait-and-see approach, hoping that the "good feeling" achieved over the past year between Thailand and Burma will produce some sort of lasting solution to the drug problems. 

Few are convinced that any lasting peace and stability will result from these ongoing dialogues and visits. Thailand knows that they are not in the position to make any real demands from the Burmese because as far as the generals in Rangoon are concerned, anything that will jeopardize their hard-won ceasefire is a matter of life and death. 

Don Pathan is the Regional Desk editor for Thailand’s English-language daily, The Nation.

TALES FROM THE FRONTIER: Down the dusty trail (Afghanistan)

The Nation

Don Pathan was the only Thai journalist present in Afghanistan last year when the US declared war on the Taleban. In the first of the four-part series, he recounts the events as they took place.

It was early morning when the phone rang. "Come down please and bring your passport with you," said the receptionist at a hotel in Almaty, Kazakhstan. It wasn't a request.

Already pissed off at the fact we'd been kicked off a flight to Dushanbe the day before, after the Kazakh immigration officers let a bunch of Tajiks take our seats, my travelling companions and I weren't too thrilled at the idea of being woken up and ordered around.

"Why are you still here?" asked the policewomen. "Your visa expired yesterday."

"Excuse me but who are you and what is this all about?" my travelling companion snapped back at the officer, still dazed and confused at this bit of reality in a former Soviet republic.

After a lengthy discussion the two officers concluded that this was a "special circumstance" and that our visas would be extended until the end of the week.

Welcome to Central Asia we thought, where governments - perhaps a little more than in other parts of the world - were freaking out at the developments in neighbouring Afghanistan. Foreigners coming and going were heavily screened, especially citizens of nearby countries bordering Afghanistan.

Indeed, the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the destruction of his Al Queda terrorist network and their hosts the Taliban, was about to start and the whole world was told by the US President George W Bush: "Either you're with us, or you're with them". 

These former Soviet republics that in the previous decades served as the gateway for Russian troops are all too familiar with the bitter experience of the Afghan. For ten years, from 1979-89, Moscow had used this region to enter and exit the country. They were devastated by the resistance put up by the mujahidin against their occupation and the experience continues to haunt the Russian people until today.

Finally, five days later, my two travelling companions and I were on a Russian-built plane to Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe, where we would spend the next four days making our final preparation before crossing into northern Afghanistan. A final test-run on our satellite phones was carried out together with our computer laptop as we wait for our over-priced visa from the Islamic Government of Afghanistan - the official name of the UN-recognised Northern Alliance that was forced out of Kabul in 1996 by the Taliban - to be processed.

Our aim was to go as far south as possible, about 35 km north of Kabul where Northern Alliance forces were facing off with Taliban soldiers along the frontline in the Shomali Plain. We hoped to cross the border before the Americans started their air war.

Besides a long list of journalists ahead of us trying to get on one of the few Afghan helicopters, things had got worse following a heavy dust storm that had enveloped Dushanbe, thus dashing any hope of us crossing the border any time soon. 

Shortly after midnight on October 6, we threw our belongings into a four-wheel drive and headed for the Afghan border five hours away. Any crossing would have to be done before the sun came up to avoid incoming Taliban artillery fire - just two hilltops away.

But getting in by land would not be easy, with or without the Taliban watching. Getting past armed Russian troops manning the Tajik-Afghan border was even more difficult. Even if you make it past the guards, and the barbed wire that seems to stretch endlessly along the Tajik border, there is an icy cold river to cross before reaching the Afghan side.

The Russians were there at the invitation of the Tajik government to serve as a buffer between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance. The latter, until recently, had been pushed back to this corner of the war-torn country that accounts for about 10 per cent of Afghanistan. 

True to their reputation, the Russian border guards would not budge. We were told to go back to Dushanbe and consult with the Foreign Ministry. But going back to the Tajik's capital meant we would have to wait in a long queue for a seat on one of the few Afghan choppers. There had not been a single flight for the past week and with the dust storm, known locally as the "Afghan wind", showing no sign of dying down, we decided that returning to the Tajik capital would be our last option.

According to our guide, there was a Tajik military installation about 10 kilometres down the road. But the ride would not be cheap, he warned. He was right. For US$250 per head, the Tajik pilots had no qualms whatsoever about flying us in - along with hundreds of arms and supplies for Afghan fighters. 

It was one of the most expensive ride in my life. Fifteen minutes later, we were met by hundreds of curious looking people who called themselves "mujahiddin".

Shortly after our arrival we were greeted by the Alliance's deputy defence minister General Barialay Khan, who displayed typical Afghan hospitality by treating us to a big feast and putting us up for the night at his residence. It would be almost two months before I would dine in such fashion again.

Unlike other tough-talking, battlefield commanders that I had ran into during my six weeks stay, Barialay come across as a visionary; cultured and very charismatic. He spoke with great conviction about the Afghan people as a whole and their ability to overcome the bitter differences in spite of two decades of fighting between various warring factions.

The fabric of Afghan society that held the various ethnic groups together for centuries, said Barialay, had not been totally destroyed by the Taliban - or any other conflict in 23 years of fighting. The role of the tribal leaders, village elders, religious scholars - all of whom have played a significant role in keeping the society in tact throughout Afghan history - will resurface once the Taliban is ousted, and resume their rightful duty as the unifying factor.

Judging from what has been talking place in recent days with the swearing in of the new interim government, and the political sacrifice made by the stronger Northern Alliance, things appear to be moving in the right direction.

Barialay is convinced that the soul of Afghanistan has not been destroyed beyond repair. Developments in recent weeks show that the war-torn country is moving towards reconciliation. The power to forgive, it seems, is as much an Afghan trait, as is the will to fight. And with the end of the Taliban rule and the destruction of the al Queda network, two decades of bloodshed is quickly coming to an end.

Can it last? 

Hard talk for Thai-Burmese

Don Pathan
The Nation

When they really needed it the most, it wasn't there. But after two years of putting it off, the Thai-Burma Joint Commission is now back on track.

Chaired by the respective foreign ministers of the two countries, the Thai-Burma JC is the highest level of institutionalised working relationship between the two governments.

The meeting in Phuket from January 7-9 is expected to discuss a wide range of issues, from the repatriation of refugees to joint anti-narcotics efforts, as well as economic cooperation. The JC mechanism is being revived at a time when bilateral ties between the two countries appear to be improving. But dig deeper, say Thai army and government officials, and you will find hard feelings and deep-rooted suspicion are still very much alive. It will take more than just a few official visits and handshakes to close this extraordinarily complex chapter in Thai-Burmese history, they say.

For the past eight years following a short-lived honeymoon started by a visit by then Army chief General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh to Rangoon after the takeover by Burmese generals in 1988, Thai-Burmese relations have been characterised by mutual criticism and violence along the border.

One of these incidents took place almost a year ago when day-long cross-border shelling resulted in the death of scores of people from both sides. The shelling, which brought bilateral ties to its lowest ebb, was followed by months of stand-offs between the two armed forces, some of whom were positioned just metres apart. The clashes broke out shortly after Thaksin Shinawatra was sworn in as the new prime minister.

A war of words between the two sides then continued for some time, with respective commanders accusing their counterparts of taking kickbacks from drug dealers. The rhetoric began to die down following Thaksin's visit to Rangoon in June. The trip was billed as a fence-mending trip during which an olive branch was extended to the Burmese. Thus begun a cooling off period.

Today, in spite of the absence of rhetoric, Bangkok-based diplomats, Thai government officials and army commanders insist tension remains. The same old problems - Burmese refugees, anti-Rangoon insurgents and drug trafficking along the border - continue to sour relations between the two countries. Nevertheless, the Thaksin government is convinced it can make things better. 

Since Thai Rak Thai first hit the campaign trail, those surrounding Thaksin have gone to great lengths to spell out the party's philosophy in dealing with Burma and other neighbouring countries.

Thailand's interest, they say, is best served by strengthened economic cooperation with its neighbours. By increasing business and trade with Burma, Bangkok will be able to move toward normalising relations with Rangoon. Other problems such as illegal migration and drug trafficking could then be dealt with through the proper channels.

It sounded good, especially to those waiting to cash in on short-term gains from improved Thai-Burmese relations. But for others, particularly drug officials and military personnel on the frontlines, it was wishful thinking.

During the Chuan Leekpai administration, Thai-Burmese relations experienced a number of hiccups. Thailand took up issues that annoyed not only Burma, but other Asean members as well. But for a regional grouping with no political will to tackle sensitive issues, Asean tends to react testily to any mention of subjects such as human rights or transnational security problems. That is exacerbated when a member is singled out as the source of the problems.

And so when Thailand broke ranks with Asean by not voting against a resolution from the International Labour Organisation to condemn Burma's practice of forced labour, things began to get nasty.

Regarding drugs, the previous administration also made it clear Rangoon must be accountable for the illicit activities of the United Wa State Army, which over the years has expanded its operations and control along the Chinese border to areas adjacent to Thailand's northern provinces. Thousands of ethnic Wa and Chinese have been transported in flatbed trucks to Burma's border with China and relocated to UWSA-controlled areas adjacent to Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai.

For the Thai security apparatus, the UWSA, which operates somewhat independently of Rangoon, has essentially became a scapegoat. But at the same time, the 20,000-strong Wa army has became a pawn in Rangoon's dealings with Thailand.

Border checkpoints leading to UWSA-controlled areas just kilometres away from the border were shut, and over 1,000 Thai nationals working in construction were ordered back home. But with this increased security along the Golden Triangle area, methamphetamines from the UWSA's labs trickled in elsewhere - along the banks of the Mekong River in Northeast Thailand and at various spots stretching from Tak province all the way down to the coastal town of Ranong.

However, the Thaksin government has decided to engaged the Wa through a tripartite dialogue with Rangoon. There is talk of a Bt20 million crop-substitution project financed by Thai taxpayers in Wa-controlled areas near the border.

But the move has irked Thailand's frontline commanders who, according to military sources, have a plan of their own - to penetrate the UWSA and plant a disruptive seed inside the organisation. It is a long shot but worth a try, they say.

But with the talks with the Wa off the ground, Thailand has effectively freed Rangoon of any burden for the illicit activities of the UWSA. "They can just say it's between you and the Wa now," said one senior officer who spoke on condition of anonymity