Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra declared his controversial war on drugs a victory. But the battle may have just begun.
Don Pathan
The Irrawaddy
Just when he thought he was flying high, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was quickly brought back down to earth when former Thai Third Army Commander Gen Wattanachai Chaimuangwong insisted that the war on drugs is far from over.
On the very day that Thaksin boldly declared the war on drugs a victory, Wattanachai quickly pointed out that millions of methamphetamine pills, known locally as yaa baa, are sitting on the Thai-Burmese border awaiting transport into the kingdom.
Another setback for the poised Prime Minister came two days later. In his annual birthday speech, His Majesty the King raised the question of accountability regarding the deaths of some 2,500 suspected drug dealers. The government had claimed that all but 30 of the deaths were merely a matter of "bad guys killing bad guys."
The King called on the government to investigate these deaths and explain them to the Thai people as well as to the international community, including the European Union and the United States.
Throughout both phases of the heavy-handed campaign, which officially began on Feb 1, human rights groups and members of the international community, including the EU and the US, have raised concerns over the extrajudicial killings.
Observers said that Thai-US relations could be at risk because of America’s Leahy Amendment, which prohibits the US government from giving aid to any foreign agency responsible for gross violations of human rights, including extrajudicial killings.
Should the amendment become law, it could very well damage the cozy relationship between the two countries, especially in the area of counterterrorism. The passing of the amendment may also effect Thailand’s decision to join the US-led war in Iraq, where about 450 Thai troops are helping coalition forces rebuild the country. Another tocsin for Thaksin came just days ago, when Narumi Yamada, senior program management officer for the UN Office of Drug and Crime, said that the rise of amphetamine-type substances (ATS) in Southeast Asia could become the world’s most severe drug problem.
"The region faces the threats of ATS, which has turned into an alarming epidemic in Southeast Asia, drawing younger consumers, offering large profit margins," Yamada said.
"Whilst law enforcement alone cannot control this menace," she told the gathering, held annually to exchange ideas with law enforcement agencies, "law enforcement agencies have an undoubtedly critical and indispensable role to play—and urgently."
According to figures released before the war on drugs, Thailand was the world’s largest per capita consumer of methamphetamines, with five percent of its 63 million people thought to be users. The war was aimed primarily at the amphetamines flooding into Thailand from the Burmese sector of the Golden Triangle, where drug warlords and their armies operate with impunity.
The current administration believes the war was won. But the key factors that have enabled the illicit industry to prosper for decades remain intact. Many see the campaign as a calculated effort to please voters, who are tired of seeing drugs in playgrounds and on the streets.
Indeed the level of public frustration over the drug problem resulted in overwhelming support for Thaksin’s harsh measures, while issues such as transparency, accountability and due process went by the wayside. Observers say that there has been a clear psychological impact on the illicit drug industry in Thailand, but that it’s just a matter of time before the industry recuperates.
Chinese business associates of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a 20,000-strong pro-Rangoon outfit considered by the US government to be the world’s largest armed drug trafficking group, said Thaksin’s campaign caused a drop in methamphetamine orders coming from Thai dealers during the height of the killing spree in the first stage of the campaign. Despite the slowdown, Wa commanders and other Golden Triangle drug lords are still in business.
Though income from drugs still accounts for a sizeable portion of their income, they have begun to diversify. In their respective domains, as well as on the Chinese side of the border, the drug lords have invested in fisheries, hotels, casinos and telecommunications. Regarding supply, the chemicals needed to produce methamphetamines are still plentiful and readily available.
Traffickers take advantage of the porous border linking Laos and Burma with China, where these chemicals are legally produced. Under the second stage of Thaksin’s war, the government was supposed to pursue big-time distributors and their political backers. US authorities reportedly provided Thai officials with a list of Thai nationals allegedly involved in drug trafficking.
And the Thaksin government claimed to have a blacklist of its own. But judging from the growing number of shoot-outs between drug caravans intercepted by Thai soldiers as they cross from Thailand into Burma, the war’s psychological effect may be waning.
Over the past three years, Thaksin has twice witnessed strains in Thai-Burmese relations. The border between the two countries erupted in February 2001, as both sides traded shells and rockets following disputes over territorial rights. And in May of last year, the Thai Army crossed what they considered to be an un-demarcated border area and then destroyed scores of labs belonging to the Wa and other drug armies. Recriminations came from the top brass of both countries as a result.
Since then Thaksin has worked hard to mend ties with Rangoon. His strategy is to push trade with Burma in the hope that the country’s drug-infested northeast frontier would say no to drugs if the area was more developed. But so far he has not demanded that trade be linked to improved narcotics suppression by Rangoon.
Meanwhile old Burma hands believe that the drug war is doomed to fail without an adequate political settlement between the military junta and the ethnic nationalities, some of whom have signed ceasefire agreements but remain armed. Until a settlement is reached, they say, Thaksin’s "victory" will only be a temporary one.
Don Pathan is a journalist based in Bangkok.
